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Public Information Arrival, Exchange Rate Volatility, and Quote Frequency

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Michael Melvin () (Arizona State University)
Xixi Yin (Arizona State University)

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Abstract

We examine the role of public information arrival as a determinant of exchange rate volatility in a microstructure setting capturing the 24-hour nature of the foreign exchange market. The mixture of distributions model is used to motivate the link between information arrival and volatility. Where past studies have used volume data from the stock market to infer information arrival, we explicitly measure the arrival of public information using Reuters Money-Market Headline News. Before model estimation can be executed, the intradaily seasonality in the data must be treated. There is a pronounced pattern in each business day that mirrors the opening and closing of major market centers. We use seasonally-adjusted data for hypothesis testing. The exchange rate data are tick-by-tick data on the German mark and Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar. The evidence suggests that the volatility of the exchange rates is independent of the rate of information arrival to the market unless seasonally-unadjusted data are used. However, in the most direct application of the mixture of distributions model, the number of quotes (price revisions) on both currencies appears to be a function of information arrival. Overall, the evidence indicates that when there is more than the normal amount of public information, there is more than the normal amount of quoting activity so public information arrival plays an important role in the evolution of the pace of market activity. The lack of a volatility effect may indicate that private information is an important source of volatility. The results have mixed implications for the debate over regulation of the foreign exchange market and proposals to "throw sand in the wheels of international finance." The positive link between public information arrival and quote frequency suggests that foreign exchange market activity is not largely self- generating and indicates that trading is likely providing the function it is meant to provide--adjusting prices and quantities to achieve an efficient allocation of resources. However, the missing link between public information arrival and volatility may be interpreted as volatility being driven by either private information or noise. The latter effect is one that provides support for regulation of the market.

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Paper provided by Arizona State University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 96/1.

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Handle: RePEc:wop:astewp:9601

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F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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  2. Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-55, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Eichengreen, Barry & Tobin, James & Wyplosz, Charles, 1995. "Two Cases for Sand in the Wheels of International Finance," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(428), pages 162-72, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. " Heteroskedasticity in Stock Return Data: Volume versus GARCH Effects," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 221-29, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. DeGennaro, Ramon P. & Shrieves, Ronald E., 1997. "Public information releases, private information arrival and volatility in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 295-315, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  17. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Milgrom, Paul R., 1985. "Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-100, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Laux, Paul A. & Ng, Lilian K., 1993. "The sources of GARCH: empirical evidence from an intraday returns model incorporating systematic and unique risks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 543-560, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Anat R. Admati, Paul Pfleiderer, 1988. "A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 3-40. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Kenen, Peter B, 1995. "Capital Controls, the EMS and EMU," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(428), pages 181-92, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Goodhart, C. A. E. & Figliuoli, L., 1991. "Every minute counts in financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 23-52, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Richard Payne, 1996. "Announcement Effects and Seasonality in the Intra-day Foreign Exchange Market," FMG Discussion Papers dp238, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Tauchen, George E & Pitts, Mark, 1983. "The Price Variability-Volume Relationship on Speculative Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 485-505, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Bernd Hayo & Ali Kutan, 2004. "The Impact of News, Oil Prices, and Global Market Developments on Russian Financial Markets," Finance 0403002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Kathryn Dominguez & Freyan Panthaki, 2005. "What Defines "News" in Foreign Exchange Markets?," NBER Working Papers 11769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Courtenay, Roger & Clare, Andrew, 2001. "What can we learn about monetary policy transparency from financial market data?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,06, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  4. Helinä Laakkonen, 2007. "The Impact of Macroeconomic News on Exchange Rate Volatility," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 20(1), pages 23-40, Spring. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Laakkonen, Helinä & Lanne, Markku, 2008. "Asymmetric News Effects on Volatility: Good vs. Bad News in Good vs. Bad Times," MPRA Paper 8296, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  6. BEN OMRANE, Walid & HEINEN, AndrŽas, 2003. "The response of individual FX dealers'quoting activity to macroeconomic news announcements," CORE Discussion Papers 2003070, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
  7. Kathryn M. E. Dominguez & Freyan Panthaki, 2007. "The Influence of Actual and Unrequited Interventions," Working Papers 561, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan. [Downloadable!]
  8. Rodney C Wolff & C.S. Robertson & S. Geva, 2006. "Does Company Specific News Effect the US, UK, and Australian Markets within 60 minutes?," Rodney Wolff Papers 2006-2, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology. [Downloadable!]
  9. Janusz Brzeszczynski & Michael Melvin, 2006. "Explaining trading volume in the euro," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 25-34. [Downloadable!]
  10. Mende, Alexander, 2005. "09/11 on the USD/EUR Foreign Exchange Market," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-312, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Andrew Clare & Roger Courtenay, . "Assessing the impact of macroeconomic news announcements on securities prices under different monetary policy regimes," Bank of England working papers 125, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  12. Fang Cai & Edward Howorka & Jon Wongswan, 2006. "Transmission of volatility and trading activity in the global interdealer foreign exchange market: evidence from electronic broking services (EBS) data," International Finance Discussion Papers 863, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  13. Alain P. Chaboud & Sergey Chernenko & Edward Howorka & Raj S. Krishnasami Iyer & David Liu & Jonathan H. Wright, 2004. "The high-frequency effects of U.S. macroeconomic data releases on prices and trading activity in the global interdealer foreign exchange market," International Finance Discussion Papers 823, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  14. BAUWENS, Luc & BEN OMRANE, Walid, 2003. "News annoucements, market activity and volatility in the Euro/Dollar foreign exchange market," CORE Discussion Papers 2003029, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2005. "Do Currency Markets Absorb News Quickly?," NBER Working Papers 11041, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Luc, BAUWENS & Dagfinn, RIME & Genaro, SUCARRAT, 2005. "Exchange Rate Volatility and the Mixture of Distribution Hypothesis," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2005043, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Kathryn Dominguez & Freyan Panthaki, 2005. "What Defines 'News' in Foreign Exchange Markets," Working Papers 547, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan. [Downloadable!]
  18. Martin D. D. Evans(Georgetown University and NBER) and Richard K. Lyons(U.C. Berkeley and NBER, Haas School of Business), . "How is Macro News Transmitted to Exchange Rates? (December 2003)," Working Papers gueconwpa~05-05-05, Georgetown University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  19. Kathryn M.E. Dominguez & Freyan Panthaki, 2007. "The Influence of Actual and Unrequited Interventions," NBER Working Papers 12953, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Harju, Kari & Hussain, Mujahid, 2006. "Intraday Seasonalities and Macroeconomic News Announcements," Working Papers 512, Hanken School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  21. Evans, Kevin & Speight, Alan, 2006. "Dynamic News Effects in High Frequency Euro Exchange Rate Returns and Volatility," Cardiff Accounting and Finance Working Papers A2006/4, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Accounting and Finance Section. [Downloadable!]
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