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Domestic Or U.S. News: What Drives Canadian Financial Markets?

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  • BERND HAYO
  • MATTHIAS NEUENKIRCH

Abstract

Using a GARCH model, we study the effects of Canadian and U.S. central bank communication and macroeconomic news on Canadian bond, stock, and foreign exchange market returns and volatility. First, central bank communication and macro news from both countries have an impact on Canadian financial markets. Second, Canadian central bank communication is more relevant than its U.S. counterpart, whereas in the case of macro news, that originating from the United States dominates. Third, we find evidence that the impact of Canadian news reaches its maximum when the Canadian target rate departs from the Federal Funds target rate (2002–2004) and thereafter. The introduction of fixed announcement dates (FAD) initially does not cause a noticeable break in the data. Finally, Canadian and U.S. target rate changes lead to higher price volatility, and so does other U.S. news. Other Canadian news, however, lowers price volatility.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Western Economic Association International in its journal Economic Inquiry.

Volume (Year): 50 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (07)
Pages: 690-706

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Handle: RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:50:y:2012:i:3:p:690-706

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References

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  1. Jonathan Kearns & Phil Manners, 2006. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on the Exchange Rate: A Study Using Intraday Data," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December.
  2. Doornik, Jurgen A. & Ooms, Marius, 2008. "Multimodality in GARCH regression models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 432-448.
  3. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  4. Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  5. Jason Andreou, 2005. "Estimating the Impact of Monetary Policy Surprises on Fixed-Income Markets," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2005(Summer), pages 11-19.
  6. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2007. "Communication by Central Bank Committee Members: Different Strategies, Same Effectiveness?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 509-541, 03.
  7. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex, 2008. "Monetary Policy Evaluation in Real Time: Forward-Looking Taylor Rules Without Forward-Looking Data," MPRA Paper 11352, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. " Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-78, December.
  9. Nicolas Parent, 2003. "Transparency and the Response of Interest Rates to the Publication of Macroeconomic Data," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2002(Winter), pages 29-34.
  10. Toni Gravelle & Richhild Moessner, 2001. "Reactions of Canadian Interest Rates to Macroeconomic Announcements: Implications for Monetary Policy Transparency," Working Papers 01-5, Bank of Canada.
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Cited by:
  1. Melanie-Kristin Beck & Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2012. "Central Bank Communication and Correlation between Financial Markets: Canada and the United States," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201201, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  2. Hayo, Bernd & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2012. "Bank of Canada communication, media coverage, and financial market reactions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 369-372.
  3. Christopher J. Neely, 2011. "A survey of announcement effects on foreign exchange volatility and jumps," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 361-385.
  4. Bernd Hayo & Britta Niehof, 2013. "Studying International Spillovers in a New Keynesian Continuous Time Framework with Financial Markets," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201342, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  5. Scott Hendry, 2012. "Central Bank Communication or the Media’s Interpretation: What Moves Markets?," Working Papers 12-9, Bank of Canada.
  6. Christopher J. Neely & S. Rubun Dey, 2010. "A survey of announcement effects on foreign exchange returns," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 417-464.
  7. Bernd Hayo & Britta Niehof, 2011. "Identification Through Heteroscedasticity in a Multicountry and Multimarket Framework," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201124, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

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