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The Impact of Foreign Macroeconomic News on Financial Markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland

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Author Info

  • David Büttner

    ()
    (Philipps-University Marburg)

  • Bernd Hayo

    ()
    (Philipps-University Marburg)

  • Matthias Neuenkirch

    ()
    (Philipps-University Marburg)

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the effects of euro area and US macroeconomic news on financial markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland (CEEC-3) from 1999 to 2006. Using a GARCH model, we examine the impact of news on daily returns of three-month interest rates, stock market indices, exchange rates versus the euro, and the US dollar. First, both US and European macroeconomic news has a significant impact on CEEC-3 financial markets. Second, the process of European integration is accompanied by an increasing importance of euro area news relative to US news. Third, there are country-specific differences: for example, the Czech stock market is relatively more affected by foreign news since the Copenhagen Summit in December 2002. In general, our results support the hypothesis of a deepening euro area influence on the CEEC-3 over time and a corresponding reduction in the relative importance of US shocks.

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File URL: http://www.uni-marburg.de/fb02/makro/forschung/magkspapers/03-2009_buettner.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung) in its series MAGKS Papers on Economics with number 200903.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Publication status: Forthcoming in
Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:200903

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Keywords: Czech Republic; European Monetary Union; Financial Markets; Hungary; Macroeconomic News; Poland;

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References

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  1. Rui Albuquerque & Clara Vega, 2009. "Economic News and International Stock Market Co-movement," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 13(3), pages 401-465.
  2. Jan Hanousek & Evžen Kočenda, 2011. "Foreign News and Spillovers in Emerging European Stock Markets," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 170-188, 02.
  3. Jan Hanousek & Evzen Kocenda & Ali M. Kutan, 2008. "The Reaction of Asset Prices to Macroeconomic Announcements in New EU Markets: Evidence from Intraday Data," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp349, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
  4. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Elton, Edwin J. & Green, T. Clifton, 2001. "Economic News and Bond Prices: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(04), pages 523-543, December.
  5. Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2006. "Meta-Analysis of the Business Cycle Correlation between the Euro Area and the CEECs," CESifo Working Paper Series 1693, CESifo Group Munich.
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  7. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2007. "Real-Time Price Discovery in Global Stock, Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets," CREATES Research Papers 2007-20, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  8. David Büttner & Bernd Hayo, 2008. "EMU-related News and Financial Markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," MAGKS Papers on Economics 200815, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  9. David Büttner & Bernd Hayo, 2009. "Determinants of European Stock Market Integration," MAGKS Papers on Economics 200932, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  10. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  11. Nikkinen, Jussi & Sahlstrom, Petri, 2004. "Scheduled domestic and US macroeconomic news and stock valuation in Europe," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 201-215, July.
  12. Doornik, Jurgen A. & Ooms, Marius, 2008. "Multimodality in GARCH regression models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 432-448.
  13. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. " Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-78, December.
  14. Kocenda, Evzen & Valachy, Juraj, 2006. "Exchange rate volatility and regime change: A Visegrad comparison," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 727-753, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Büttner, David & Hayo, Bernd, 2010. "News and correlations of CEEC-3 financial markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 915-922, September.
  2. Bernd Hayo & Ali M. Kutan & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2012. "Federal Reserve Communications and Emerging Equity Markets," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 1041-1056, January.
  3. Birz, Gene & Lott Jr., John R., 2011. "The effect of macroeconomic news on stock returns: New evidence from newspaper coverage," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2791-2800, November.

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