News and Correlations of CEEC-3 Financial Markets
AbstractWe investigate conditional correlations between six CEEC-3 financial markets estimated by DCC-MGARCH models. In general, the highest correlations exist between Hungary and Poland in foreign exchange and stock markets. Short-term money markets are rather isolated from each other. We find that the associations of CEEC-3 exchange rates versus the euro are weaker than those versus the US dollar. The persistence of the effect of shocks on the timevarying correlations is strongest for foreign exchange and stock markets, indicating a tendency toward contagion. In searching for the origins of financial market volatility in the CEEC-3, we uncover some evidence of Granger-causality on the foreign exchange markets. Finally, using a pool model, we investigate the impact of euro area, US, and CEEC-3 news on the correlations. Apart from ECB monetary policy news, we observe no broad effects of international news on correlations; instead, local news exerts an influence, which suggests adominance of country- or market-specific circumstances.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung) in its series MAGKS Papers on Economics with number 200944.
Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Publication status: Forthcoming in
Financial markets; Czech Republic; Hungary; Poland; political news; macroeconomic shocks; contagion; DCC-MGARCH;
Other versions of this item:
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
- F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-11-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2009-11-14 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2009-11-14 (European Economics)
- NEP-TRA-2009-11-14 (Transition Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Nelson, Daniel B., 1990. "Stationarity and Persistence in the GARCH(1,1) Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(03), pages 318-334, September.
- Haile, Fasika & Pozo, Susan, 2008. "Currency crisis contagion and the identification of transmission channels," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 572-588, October.
- Serwa, Dobromil & Bohl, Martin T., 2005. "Financial contagion vulnerability and resistance: A comparison of European stock markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 344-362, September.
- Mahendra Chandra, 2006. "The day-of-the-week effect in conditional correlation," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 297-310, November.
- Hayo, Bernd, 1998.
"Money-output Granger causality revisited: An empirical analysis of EU countries,"
ZEI Working Papers
B 08-1998, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
- Bernd Hayo, 1999. "Money-output Granger causality revisited: an empirical analysis of EU countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(11), pages 1489-1501.
- Bernd Hayo, 1998. "Money-Output Granger Causality Revisited: An Empirical Analysis of EU Countries," Macroeconomics 9809009, EconWPA.
- David Büttner & Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2009.
"The Impact of Foreign Macroeconomic News on Financial Markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland,"
MAGKS Papers on Economics
200903, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
- David Büttner & Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2012. "The impact of foreign macroeconomic news on financial markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland," Empirica, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 19-44, February.
- Egert, Balazs & Kocenda, Evzen, 2007. "Interdependence between Eastern and Western European stock markets: Evidence from intraday data," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 184-203, June.
- Didier, Tatiana & Mauro, Paolo & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2008. "Vanishing financial contagion?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 775-791.
- David Büttner & Bernd Hayo, 2008.
"EMU-related News and Financial Markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland,"
MAGKS Papers on Economics
200815, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
- D B�ttner & B. Hayo, 2012. "EMU-related news and financial markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(31), pages 4037-4053, November.
- BAUWENS, Luc & LAURENT, Sébastien & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen VK, .
"Multivariate GARCH models: a survey,"
CORE Discussion Papers RP
-1847, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164.
- Chiang, Thomas C. & Jeon, Bang Nam & Li, Huimin, 2007. "Dynamic correlation analysis of financial contagion: Evidence from Asian markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1206-1228, November.
- Sunil Sharma & Sushil Bikhchandani, 2000. "Herd Behavior in Financial Markets: A Review," IMF Working Papers 00/48, International Monetary Fund.
- Roberto Rigobon, 2001.
"Contagion: How to Measure It?,"
NBER Working Papers
8118, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Annastiina Silvennoinen & Timo Teräsvirta, 2008.
"Multivariate GARCH models,"
CREATES Research Papers
2008-06, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
- Jan Hanousek & Evzen Kocenda & Ali M. Kutan, 2008.
"The Reaction of Asset Prices to Macroeconomic Announcements in New EU Markets: Evidence from Intraday Data,"
CERGE-EI Working Papers
wp349, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
- Hanousek, Jan & Kocenda, Evzen & Kutan, Ali M., 2009. "The reaction of asset prices to macroeconomic announcements in new EU markets: Evidence from intraday data," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 199-219, June.
- Andrews, Donald W K, 1991.
"Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation,"
Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1988. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 877R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1989.
- Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 463-84, December.
- Ranil Salgado & Luca Antonio Ricci & Francesco Caramazza, 2000. "Trade and Financial Contagion in Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 00/55, International Monetary Fund.
- James G. MacKinnon & Halbert White, 1983.
"Some Heteroskedasticity Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimators with Improved Finite Sample Properties,"
537, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- MacKinnon, James G. & White, Halbert, 1985. "Some heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimators with improved finite sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 305-325, September.
- Fazio, Giorgio, 2007. "Extreme interdependence and extreme contagion between emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1261-1291, December.
- Bonfiglioli, Alessandra & Favero, Carlo A., 2005. "Explaining co-movements between stock markets: The case of US and Germany," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1299-1316, December.
- Joanna Olbrys & Elzbieta Majewska, 2014. "Implications of market frictions: serial correlations in indexes on the emerging stock markets in Central and Eastern Europe," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Technology, Institute of Organization and Management, vol. 1, pages 51-70.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bernd Hayo).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.