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The Reaction of Asset Prices to Macroeconomic Announcements in New EU Markets: Evidence from Intraday Data

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  • Jan Hanousek
  • Evzen Kocenda
  • Ali M. Kutan

Abstract

We estimate the impact of macroeconomic news on composite stock returns in three emerging European Union financial markets (the Budapest BUX, Prague PX-50, and Warsaw WIG-20), using intraday data and macroeconomic announcements. Our contribution is twofold. We employ a larger set of macroeconomic data releases than used in previous studies and also use intraday data, an excess impact approach, and foreign news to provide more reliable inferences. Composite stock returns are computed based on five-minute intervals (ticks) and macroeconomic news are measured based on the deviations of the actual announcement values from their expectations. Overall, we find that all three new EU stock markets are subject to significant spillovers directly via the composite index returns from the EU, the U.S. and neighboring markets; Budapest exhibits the strongest spillover effect, followed by Warsaw and Prague. The Czech and Hungarian markets are also subject to spillovers indirectly through the transmission of macroeconomic news. The impact of EU-wide announcements is evidenced more in the case of Hungary, while the Czech market is more impacted by U.S. news. The Polish market is marginally affected by EU news. In addition, after decomposing pooled announcements, we show that the impact of multiple announcements is stronger than that of single news. Our results suggest that the impact of foreign macroeconomic announcements goes beyond the impact of the foreign stock markets on Central and Eastern European indices. We also discuss the implications of the findings for financial stability in the three emerging European markets.

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Paper provided by The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague in its series CERGE-EI Working Papers with number wp349.

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Date of creation: Mar 2008
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Handle: RePEc:cer:papers:wp349

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Keywords: Stock markets; intraday data; macroeconomic announcements; European Union; volatility; excess impact of news.;

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Cited by:
  1. Jan Hanousek & Evzen Kocenda & Jan Novotny, 2014. "Price jumps on European stock markets," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 14(1), pages 10-22, March.
  2. Christos Savva & Nektarios Aslanidis, 2010. "Stock market integration between new EU member states and the Euro-zone," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 337-351, October.
  3. Balázs Égert & Evžen Kočenda, 2011. "Time-varying synchronization of European stock markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 393-407, April.
  4. Barbara Bedowska-Sojka, 2011. "The Impact of Macro News on Volatility of Stock Exchanges," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 11, pages 99-110.
  5. Hanousek, Jan & Novotný, Jan, 2012. "Price jumps in Visegrad-country stock markets: An empirical analysis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 184-201.
  6. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2014. "Macro News and Stock Returns in the Euro Area: A VAR-GARCH-in-Mean Analysis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1399, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  7. Nektarios Aslanidis & Christos S. Savva, 2011. "Are There Still Portfolio Diversification Benefits In Eastern Europe? Aggregate Versus Sectoral Stock Market Data," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(6), pages 1323-1352, December.
  8. Barbara Będowska-Sójka, 2010. "Intraday CAC40, DAX and WIG20 returns when the American macro news is announced," Bank i Kredyt, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute, vol. 41(2), pages 7-20.
  9. Baumöhl, Eduard, 2013. "Stock market integration between the CEE-4 and the G7 markets: Asymmetric DCC and smooth transition approach," MPRA Paper 43834, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:2013:y:2013:i:4:id:434:p:450-469 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. David Büttner & Bernd Hayo, 2009. "News and Correlations of CEEC-3 Financial Markets," MAGKS Papers on Economics 200944, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  12. Wan, Yang & Clutter, Michael L. & Siry, Jacek P. & Mei, Bin, 2013. "Assessing the impact of macroeconomic news on the U.S. forest products industry portfolio across business cycles: 1963–2010," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 15-22.
  13. David Büttner & Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2012. "The impact of foreign macroeconomic news on financial markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland," Empirica, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 19-44, February.
  14. Gjika, Dritan & Horváth, Roman, 2013. "Stock market comovements in Central Europe: Evidence from the asymmetric DCC model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 55-64.
  15. Hubert Gabrisch & Lucjan T Orlowski, 2011. "Extreme Risks in Financial Markets and Monetary Policies of the Euro-Candidates," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(4), pages 511-534, December.
  16. Joanna Olbrys, 2013. "Price and Volatility Spillovers in the Case of Stock Markets Located in Different Time Zones," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 49(S2), pages 145-157, March.
  17. Anita Radman Peša & Mejra Festić, 2012. "Testing the “EU Announcement Effect” on Stock Market Indices and Macroeconomic Variables in Croatia Between 2000 and 2010," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2012(4), pages 450-469.
  18. Jan Hanousek & Evžen Kočenda, 2010. "Effect of Intraday Information Flow on the Emerging European Stock Markets," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2010(4), pages 435-457.
  19. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Nicola Spagnolo, 2010. "Stock Market Integration between three CEECs, Russia and the UK," CESifo Working Paper Series 2978, CESifo Group Munich.

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