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Stock Return Predictability and the Role of Monetary Policy

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Author Info
 Patelis, Alex D
Abstract

This article examines whether shifts in the stance of monetary policy can account for the observed predictability in excess stock returns. Using long-horizon regressions and short-horizon vector autoregressions, the article concludes that monetary policy variables are significant predictors of future returns, although they cannot fully account for observed stock return predictability. The author undertakes variance decompositions to investigate how monetary policy affects the individual components of excess returns (risk-free discount rates, risk premia, or cash flows). Copyright 1997 by American Finance Association.

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File URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-1082%28199712%2952%3A5%3C1951%3ASRPATR%3E2.0.CO%3B2-W&origin=repec
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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 52 (1997)
Issue (Month): 5 (December)
Pages: 1951-72
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:52:y:1997:i:5:p:1951-72

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  1. Hui Guo & Robert Savickas, 2003. "On the cross section of conditionally expected stock returns," Working Papers 2003-043, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  2. Don Bredin & Caroline Gavin & Gerard O Reilly, 2003. "The Influence of Domestic and International Interest Rates on the ISEQ," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 34(3), pages 249–265. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Abdullah Iqbal, Susanne Espenlaub, Norman Strong, 2006. "The Long-Run Performance of UK Rights Issuers," Frontiers in Finance and Economics, Lille Graduate School of Management, vol. 3(2), pages 18-54, December. [Downloadable!]
  4. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2006. "Global financial transmission of monetary policy shocks," Working Paper Series 616, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Bedri Tas, 2004. "Private information of the Fed, predictability of stock returns and expected monetary policy," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 100, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  6. Bredin, Don & Hyde, Stuart & O'Reilly, Gerard, 2005. "European Monetary Policy Surprises: The Aggregate and Sectoral Stock Market Response," Research Technical Papers 10/RT/05, Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland (CBFSAI). [Downloadable!]
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  7. Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2004. "Financial Asset Returns, Direction-of-Change Forecasting, and Volatility Dynamics," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/08, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Locarno, Alberto & Massa, Massimo, 2005. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and the Stock Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 4828, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Gitit G. Gershgoren, Shmuel Hauser, 2006. "Stock Market Reaction to Unexpected Changes in Interest Rates," Frontiers in Finance and Economics, Lille Graduate School of Management, vol. 3(2), pages 1-17, December. [Downloadable!]
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