Fundamentals, Macroeconomic Announcements and Asset Prices
AbstractThe aim of this paper is to study the impact of macroeconomic announcements on asset prices, with the objectives of both measuring the average response of stock returns to macroeconomic news surprises, and explaining the sources of such a reaction. To assess the importance of scheduled French and US macroeconomic announcements, Stock returns are analyzed on the French stock market. It is shown that, according to previous studies, there is little evidence of the reaction of the market to those surprises. News about inflation, U.S consumption and real economic activity are specially expected by investors. It confirms the leading role of the U.S. economy and in particular of U.S. consumers in determining the development of the world economy and the dynamics of stock markets. Results also show that unexpected positive surprise in the unemployment rate causes a cut on future excess returns and future dividends. The opposite reaction is observed from the housing starts indicator. The consumer price index appears to have an impact not only on future excess returns, but also on future real interest rates.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX in its series EconomiX Working Papers with number 2009-16.
Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Asset Prices; Macroeconomic Announcements; Event-Study;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-04-25 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2009-04-25 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2009-04-25 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2000.
"Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: evidence from the Fed funds futures markets,"
Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
99, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
- Refet Gurkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005.
"Do Actions Speak Louder than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements,"
- Refet S Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
- Refet GÃ¼rkaynak & Brian Sack, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words?The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005, Society for Computational Economics 323, Society for Computational Economics.
- Gurkaynak, Refet S & Sack, Brian & Swanson, Eric T, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," MPRA Paper 820, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Refet Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2004. "Do actions speak louder than words? the response of asset prices to monetary policy actions and statements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 2004-66, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Willem Thorbecke, 1998.
"On Stock Market Returns and Monetary Policy,"
- Willem Thorbecke, 1995. "On Stock Market Returns and Monetary Policy," Economics Working Paper Archive, Levy Economics Institute wp_139, Levy Economics Institute.
- Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2006.
"Noisy Macroeconomic Announcements, Monetary Policy, and Asset Prices,"
NBER Working Papers
12420, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2008. "Noisy Macroeconomic Announcements, Monetary Policy, and Asset Prices," NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 335-370 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Elton, Edwin J. & Green, T. Clifton, 2001. "Economic News and Bond Prices: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(04), pages 523-543, December.
- Mark J. Flannery & Aris A. Protopapadakis, 2002. "Macroeconomic Factors Do Influence Aggregate Stock Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 751-782.
- Dominique Guégan & Florian Ielpo, 2007. "Further evidence on the impact of economic news on interest," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, UniversitÃ© PanthÃ©on-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne b07062, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
- Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1999. "Price Formation and Liquidity in the U.S. Treasury Market: The Response to Public Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1901-1915, October.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Valérie Mignon).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.