IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mse/cesdoc/b07062.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Further evidence on the impact of economic news on interest

Author

Abstract

US interest rates'overnight reaction to macroeconomic announcements is of tremendous importance trading fixed income securities. Most of the empirical studies achieved so far either assumed that the interest rates' reaction to announcements is linear or independent to the state of the economy. We investigate the shape of the tern structure reaction of the swap rates to announcements using several linear and non-linear time series models. The empirical results yield several not-so-well-known stylized facts about the bond market. First, and although we used a daily dataset, we find that the introduction of non linear models leads to the finding of a significant number of macroeconomic figures that actually produce an effect over the yield curve. Most of the studies using daily datasets did not corroborate so far this conclusion. Second, we find that the term structure response to announcements can be much more complicated that what is generally found: we noticed at least four types of patterns in the term structure reaction of interest rates across maturities, including the hump-shaped one that is generally considered. Third, by comparing the shapes of the rates' term structure reaction to announcements with the first four factors obtained when performing a principal component analysis of the daily changes in the swap rates, we propose a first interpretation and classification of these different shapes. Fourth, we find that the existence of some outliers in the one-day changes in interest rates usually leads to a strong underestimation of the reaction of interest rates to announcements, explaining the different results obtained between high-frequency and daily datasets: the first type of study seems to lead to the finding of fewer market mover announcements

Suggested Citation

  • Dominique Guégan & Florian Ielpo, 2007. "Further evidence on the impact of economic news on interest," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne b07062, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  • Handle: RePEc:mse:cesdoc:b07062
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: ftp://mse.univ-paris1.fr/pub/mse/CES2007/B07062.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marie Briere & Florian Ielpo, 2007. "Yield curve reaction to macroeconomic news in Europe :disentangling the US influence," Working Papers CEB 07-038.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    2. Melanie-Kristin Beck & Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2013. "Central bank communication and correlation between financial markets: Canada and the United States," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 277-296, June.
    3. Di Maggio, Marco, 2010. "The Political Economy of the Yield Curve," MPRA Paper 20697, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. repec:dau:papers:123456789/9305 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Aymen Belgacem, 2009. "Fundamentals, Macroeconomic Announcements and Asset Prices," EconomiX Working Papers 2009-16, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomic announcements; interest rates dynamic; outliers; reaction function; principale component analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mse:cesdoc:b07062. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lucie Label (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cenp1fr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.