News and correlations of CEEC-3 financial markets
AbstractWe employ DCC-MGARCH models to investigate conditional correlations between six CEEC-3 financial markets. In general, the highest correlations exist between Hungary and Poland in foreign exchange and stock markets. Short-term money markets are somewhat isolated from each other. We find that the associations of CEEC-3 exchange rates versus euro are weaker than those versus the US dollar. The persistence of the effect of shocks on the time-varying correlations is strongest for foreign exchange and stock markets, indicating a tendency toward contagion. In searching for the origins of financial market volatility in the CEEC-3, we uncover some evidence of Granger-causality on the foreign exchange markets. Finally, using a pool model, we investigate the impact of euro area, US, and CEEC-3 news on the correlations. Apart from ECB monetary policy news, we observe no broad effects of international news on correlations; instead, local news exerts an influence, which suggests a dominance of country- or market-specific circumstances.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.
Volume (Year): 27 (2010)
Issue (Month): 5 (September)
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411
Financial markets Czech Republic Hungary Poland Political news Macroeconomic shocks Contagion DCC-MGARCH;
Other versions of this item:
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
- F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
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