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News and correlations of CEEC-3 financial markets

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  • Büttner, David
  • Hayo, Bernd

Abstract

We employ DCC-MGARCH models to investigate conditional correlations between six CEEC-3 financial markets. In general, the highest correlations exist between Hungary and Poland in foreign exchange and stock markets. Short-term money markets are somewhat isolated from each other. We find that the associations of CEEC-3 exchange rates versus euro are weaker than those versus the US dollar. The persistence of the effect of shocks on the time-varying correlations is strongest for foreign exchange and stock markets, indicating a tendency toward contagion. In searching for the origins of financial market volatility in the CEEC-3, we uncover some evidence of Granger-causality on the foreign exchange markets. Finally, using a pool model, we investigate the impact of euro area, US, and CEEC-3 news on the correlations. Apart from ECB monetary policy news, we observe no broad effects of international news on correlations; instead, local news exerts an influence, which suggests a dominance of country- or market-specific circumstances.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 27 (2010)
Issue (Month): 5 (September)
Pages: 915-922

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:27:y:2010:i:5:p:915-922

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

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Keywords: Financial markets Czech Republic Hungary Poland Political news Macroeconomic shocks Contagion DCC-MGARCH;

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Cited by:
  1. Narcisa Kadlcakova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Michal Hlavacek, 2013. "Identification of Asset Price Misalignments on Financial Markets With Extreme Value Theory," Working Papers 2013/14, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  2. Joanna Olbrys & Elzbieta Majewska, 2014. "Implications of market frictions: serial correlations in indexes on the emerging stock markets in Central and Eastern Europe," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Technology, Institute of Organization and Management, vol. 1, pages 51-70.

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