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Domestic or U.S. News: What Drives Canadian Financial Markets?

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  • Bernd Hayo

    ()
    (Philipps-University Marburg)

  • Matthias Neuenkirch

    ()
    (Philipps-University Marburg)

Abstract

Using a GARCH model, we study the effects of Canadian and U.S. central bank communication and macroeconomic news on Canadian bond, stock, and foreign exchange market returns and volatility. First, central bank communication and macro news from both countries have an impact on Canadian financial markets. Second, Canadian central bank communication is more relevant than its U.S. counterpart, whereas in the case of macro news, that originating from the United States dominates. Third, we find evidence that the impact of Canadian news reaches its maximum when the Canadian target rate departs from the Federal Funds target rate (2002–2004) and thereafter. The introduction of fixed announcement dates (FAD) initially does not cause a noticeable break in the data. Finally, Canadian and U.S. target rate changes lead to higher price volatility, and so does other U.S. news. Other Canadian news, however, lowers price volatility.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung) in its series MAGKS Papers on Economics with number 200908.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Publication status: Forthcoming in
Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:200908

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Keywords: Bank of Canada; Central Bank Communication; Federal Reserve Bank; Financial Markets; Macroeconomic News; Monetary Policy;

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References

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  1. Toni Gravelle & Richhild Moessner, 2001. "Reactions of Canadian Interest Rates to Macroeconomic Announcements: Implications for Monetary Policy Transparency," Working Papers 01-5, Bank of Canada.
  2. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2007. "Communication by Central Bank Committee Members: Different Strategies, Same Effectiveness?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 509-541, 03.
  3. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. " Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-78, December.
  4. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
  5. Jonathan Kearns & Phil Manners, 2005. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on the Exchange Rate: A Study Using Intraday Data," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2005-02, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  6. Jason Andreou, 2005. "Estimating the Impact of Monetary Policy Surprises on Fixed-Income Markets," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2005(Summer), pages 11-19.
  7. Nicolas Parent, 2003. "Transparency and the Response of Interest Rates to the Publication of Macroeconomic Data," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2002(Winter), pages 29-34.
  8. Doornik, Jurgen A. & Ooms, Marius, 2008. "Multimodality in GARCH regression models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 432-448.
  9. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  10. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex, 2008. "Monetary Policy Evaluation in Real Time: Forward-Looking Taylor Rules Without Forward-Looking Data," MPRA Paper 11352, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Bernd Hayo & Britta Niehof, 2011. "Identification Through Heteroscedasticity in a Multicountry and Multimarket Framework," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201124, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  2. Hayo, Bernd & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2012. "Bank of Canada communication, media coverage, and financial market reactions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 369-372.
  3. Melanie-Kristin Beck & Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2013. "Central bank communication and correlation between financial markets: Canada and the United States," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 277-296, June.
  4. Scott Hendry, 2012. "Central Bank Communication or the Media’s Interpretation: What Moves Markets?," Working Papers 12-9, Bank of Canada.
  5. Christopher J. Neely, 2011. "A survey of announcement effects on foreign exchange volatility and jumps," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 361-385.
  6. Moura, Marcelo L. & Gaião, Rafael L., 2014. "Impact of macroeconomic surprises on the Brazilian yield curve and expected inflation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 114-144.
  7. Christopher J. Neely & S. Rubun Dey, 2010. "A survey of announcement effects on foreign exchange returns," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 417-464.
  8. Bernd Hayo & Britta Niehof, 2014. "Analysis of Monetary Policy Responses After Financial Market Crises in a Continuous Time New Keynesian Model," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201421, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  9. Bernd Hayo & Britta Niehof, 2013. "Studying International Spillovers in a New Keynesian Continuous Time Framework with Financial Markets," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201342, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

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