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Domestic or U.S. News: What Drives Canadian Financial Markets?

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Author Info
Bernd Hayo () (Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Philipps-University Marburg)
Matthias Neuenkirch () (Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Philipps-University Marburg)

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Abstract

Using a GARCH model, we study the effects of Canadian and U.S. central bank communication and macroeconomic news on Canadian bond, stock, and foreign exchange market returns and volatility. First, news in both categories and from both countries has an impact on all financial markets. Canadian and U.S. price shocks and monetary policy news are less important than shocks relating to the real economy. Second, Canadian central bank communication is more relevant than its U.S. counterpart, whereas in the case of macro news that originating from the United States dominates. Third, we find evidence that the impact of Canadian news reaches its maximum when the Canadian target rate departs from the Federal Funds target rate (2002–2004) and thereafter. The introduction of fixed announcement dates (FAD) does initially not cause a noticeable break in the data. Finally, Canadian and U.S. target rate changes lead to higher price volatility, and so does other U.S. news. Other Canadian news, however, lowers price volatility.

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File URL: http://www.uni-marburg.de/fb02/makro/forschung/magkspapers/08-2009_hayo.pdf
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File Function: Fourth version, 2009
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung) in its series MAGKS Papers on Economics with number 200908.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Publication status: Forthcoming in
Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:200908

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Postal: Universit�tsstra�e 25, 35037 Marburg
Phone: 06421/28-1722
Fax: 06421/28-4858
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Web page: http://www.uni-marburg.de/fb02/
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Related research
Keywords: Bank of Canada; Central Bank Communication; Federal Reserve Bank; Financial Markets; Macroeconomic News; Monetary Policy;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. " Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-78, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Doornik, Jurgen A. & Ooms, Marius, 2008. "Multimodality in GARCH regression models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 432-448. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex, 2008. "Monetary Policy Evaluation in Real Time: Forward-Looking Taylor Rules Without Forward-Looking Data," MPRA Paper 11352, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Tim Bollerslev & Jeffrey Wooldridge, 1992. "Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation and inference in dynamic models with time-varying covariances," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 143-172. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Toni Gravelle & Richhild Moessner, 2001. "Reactions of Canadian Interest Rates to Macroeconomic Announcements: Implications for Monetary Policy Transparency," Working Papers 01-5, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  6. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2007. "Communication by Central Bank Committee Members: Different Strategies, Same Effectiveness?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 509-541, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Malcolm Edey & Andrew Stone, 2004. "A Perspective on Monetary Policy Transparency and Communication," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Christopher Kent & Simon Guttmann (ed.), The Future of Inflation Targeting Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  8. Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Jonathan Kearns & Phil Manners, 2006. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on the Exchange Rate: A Study Using Intraday Data," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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