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Identification Through Heteroscedasticity in a Multicountry and Multimarket Framework

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  • Bernd Hayo

    ()
    (University of Marburg)

  • Britta Niehof

    ()
    (University of Marburg)

Abstract

This paper formally proves that Rigobon and Sack (2004)'s approach of identifying monetary policy shocks through heteroscedasticity can be extended to a multimarket and multicountry framework. Applying our multivariate framework allows deriving consistent estimators of monetary policy effects. The advantage of our extended approach is illustrated by applying it to European financial markets. We analyse monetary policy actions of the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank, and the Swedish Riksbank on major stock indices. First, in line with the Rigobon and Sack (2004) approach, we find an increase in the variance of European stock and money market returns on days when monetary policy committee meetings are held. Second, monetary policy actions have a significant impact on financial markets. Third, we discover that ECB monetary policy moves have spillover effects on the British and Swiss financial markets, but find no evidence of reverse causality.

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File URL: http://www.uni-marburg.de/fb02/makro/forschung/magkspapers/24-2011_hayo.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung) in its series MAGKS Papers on Economics with number 201124.

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Length: 24pages
Date of creation: 2011
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Publication status: Forthcoming in
Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:201124

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Keywords: Financial markets; instrumental variable estimation; identification through heteroscedasticity; spillover effects;

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References

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  1. Sondermann, David & Bohl, Martin T. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2009. "The euro area stock market channel: Does one size fit all?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 230-235, December.
  2. Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2009. "Domestic or U.S. News: What Drives Canadian Financial Markets?," MAGKS Papers on Economics 200908, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  3. Willem Thorbecke, 1995. "On Stock Market Returns and Monetary Policy," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_139, Levy Economics Institute.
  4. Craine, Roger & Martin, Vance L., 2008. "International monetary policy surprise spillovers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 180-196, May.
  5. Bernd Hayo & Ali M. Kutan & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2009. "The Impact of U.S. Central Bank Communication on European and Pacific Equity Markets," MAGKS Papers on Economics 200927, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  6. Bernd Hayo & Ali M. Kutan & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2009. "Federal Reserve Communications and Emerging Equity Markets," MAGKS Papers on Economics 200923, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  7. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Leitemo, Kai, 2009. "Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 275-282, March.
  8. Martin T. Bohl & Pierre L. Siklos & David Sondermann, 2008. "European Stock Markets and the ECB's Monetary Policy Surprises," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(2), pages 117-130, 08.
  9. Konstantin Kholodilin & Alberto Montagnoli & Oreste Napolitano & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2008. "Assessing the Impact of the ECB's Monetary Policy on the Stock Markets: A Sectoral View," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 814, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  10. Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2000. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: evidence from the Fed funds futures markets," Staff Reports 99, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  11. Bredin, Don & Hyde, Stuart & Reilly, Gerard O., 2010. "Monetary policy surprises and international bond markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 988-1002, October.
  12. Don Bredin & Stuart Hyde & Dirk Nitzsche & Gerard O'reilly, 2007. "UK Stock Returns and the Impact of Domestic Monetary Policy Shocks," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(5-6), pages 872-888.
  13. Patelis, Alex D, 1997. " Stock Return Predictability and the Role of Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1951-72, December.
  14. William J. Crowder, 2006. "The Interaction Of Monetary Policy And Stock Returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 29(4), pages 523-535.
  15. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel & Rigobon, Roberto, 2005. "Stocks, bonds, money markets and exchange rates: measuring international financial transmission," Working Paper Series 0452, European Central Bank.
  16. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2002. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-4, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  17. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2007. "Communication by Central Bank Committee Members: Different Strategies, Same Effectiveness?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 509-541, 03.
  18. Kleimeier, Stefanie & Sander, Harald, 2006. "Expected versus unexpected monetary policy impulses and interest rate pass-through in euro-zone retail banking markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1839-1870, July.
  19. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
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