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Measuring the Impact of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices in Turkey (Turkiye’de Para Politikasinin Finansal Varlik Fiyatlari Uzerine Etkisi)

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Author Info

  • Murat Duran
  • Gulserim Ozcan
  • Pinar Ozlu
  • Deren Unalmis

Abstract

The transmission of policy decisions to financial markets is an integral part of the monetary transmission mechanism. However, one of the major problems in estimating the effect of monetary policy on asset prices is the simultaneous response of policy actions and the asset prices to each other. Rigobon and Sack (2004) suggest a heterokedasticity-based generalized method of moments (GMM) technique to overcome this problem. For emerging markets, there are very few studies using this method. This study applies the heteroskedasticity-based technique to estimate the impact of monetary policy on the Turkish bond, currency and stock markets. This technique also addresses the omitted variables problem. The empirical results verify the findings obtained by event study methods in earlier studies. Firstly, the impact of monetary policy on market interest rates is found to be positive, which diminishes with maturity for maturities longer than 9 months. Secondly, the results suggest that a rise in the policy rate leads to a moderate appreciation of the domestic currency, where the TL/EUR rate is affected more significantly compared to the TL/US dollar rate. Finally, the results show that an increase in the policy rate leads to a decline in stock prices, and monetary policy has the greatest impact on the share prices of the financial sector firms.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in its series Working Papers with number 1017.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1017

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Keywords: Monetary Policy; Asset Prices; Identification through Heteroskedasticity;

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References

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  1. Refet S Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
  2. Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 777-792, November.
  3. Martin T. Bohl & Pierre L. Siklos & David Sondermann, 2008. "European Stock Markets and the ECB's Monetary Policy Surprises," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(2), pages 117-130, 08.
  4. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2004. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," NBER Working Papers 10402, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Tore Ellingsen & Ulf Soderstrom, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Market Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1594-1607, December.
  6. Guimarães, Bernardo & Soares Gonçalves, Carlos Eduardo, 2007. "Monetary Policy, Default Risk and the Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 6501, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. András Rezessy, 2005. "Estimating the immediate impact of monetary policy shocks on the exchange rate and other asset prices in Hungary," MNB Occasional Papers 2005/38, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
  8. Konstantin Kholodilin & Alberto Montagnoli & Oreste Napolitano & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2008. "Assessing the impact of the ECB’s monetary policy on the stock markets: A sectoral view," KOF Working papers 08-213, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  9. Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2000. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: evidence from the Fed funds futures markets," Staff Reports 99, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  10. Zelal Aktas & Harun Alp & Refet Gurkaynak & Mehtap Kesriyeli & Musa Orak, 2008. "Turkiye’de Para Politikasinin Aktarimi:Para Politikasinin Mali Piyasalara Etkisi," Working Papers 0811, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  11. Roberto Rigobon & Brian P. Sack, 2002. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 8794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Pinar Ozlu & Cihan Yalcin, 2010. "Kuresel Firma Ticari Borclari ve Kredi Aktarim Mekanizmasi," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1004, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  13. Murat Duran & Pinar Ozlu & Deren Unalmis, 2010. "TCMB Faiz Kararlarinin Hisse Senedi Piyasalari Uzerine Etkisi," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 10(2), pages 23-32.
  14. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel & Rigobon, Roberto, 2005. "Stocks, bonds, money markets and exchange rates: measuring international financial transmission," Working Paper Series 0452, European Central Bank.
  15. Pinar Ozlu & Cihan Yalcin, 2010. "The Trade Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from Non-Financial Firms in Turkey (Firma Ticari Borclari ve Kredi Aktarim Mekanizmasi: Turkiye Ornegi)," Working Papers 1016, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
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