Estimating the immediate impact of monetary policy shocks on the exchange rate and other asset prices in Hungary
AbstractThe paper estimates the immediate impact of Hungarian monetary policy on three classes of asset prices: the exchange rate of the forint vis-à-vis the euro, spot and forward government bond yields and the index of the Budapest Stock Exchange. The endogeneity problem is treated with the method of identification through heteroskedasticity as described by Rigobon and Sack (2004). The results suggest a significant impact on the exchange rate in one day i.e. an increase in the policy rate leads to an appreciation of the domestic currency, which is in line with the classic intuition. The effect increases markedly when the estimation is carried out with a two-day window suggesting the inefficiency of markets in incorporating monetary policy decisions in asset prices in a short period of time. Monetary policy affects spot yields positively, but the effect gradually dies out as the horizon gets longer. This can be explained with the impact on forward yields, as the results suggest a positive impact on short-term and a negative impact on long-term forward yields meaning that a surprise change in the policy rate leads to a rotation of the forward curve. The method does not provide interpretable and significant results for the stock exchange index.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary) in its series MNB Occasional Papers with number 2005/38.
Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Monetary transmission mechanism; Asset prices; Exchange rate; Yield curve; Stock market; Identification; Heteroskedasticity.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-01-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2006-03-12 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FMK-2006-02-28 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-IFN-2006-01-28 (International Finance)
- NEP-MAC-2006-01-27 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2006-01-26 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-TRA-2006-02-21 (Transition Economics)
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