Risk premium shocks, monetary policy and exchange rate pass-through in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland
AbstractThis paper investigates the role of monetary policy in a small open economy, where exchange rate shocks are important. VAR models are estimated for the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. Contemporaneous and sign restrictions are imposed in order to identify the effect of monetary policy and risk premium shocks. Estimates from the same model for Canada, Sweden and the UK are used as benchmark for developed economies with low inflation. The results suggest that the typical size a of risk premium shock renders it almost impossible for the interest rate policy to smooth the exchange rate with the aim of minimising inflationary consequences. On the other hand, low inflation may decrease the exchange rate pass-through, which helps the monetary policy ignore exchange rate shocks.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary) in its series MNB Working Papers with number 2010/1.
Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
monetary policy; risk premium shocks; exchange rate pass-through; structural VAR; sign restriction;
Other versions of this item:
- Balázs Vonnák, 2010. "Risk Premium Shocks, Monetary Policy And Exchange Rate Pass-Through In The Czech Republic, Hungary And Poland," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-03-06 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2010-03-06 (Central Banking)
- NEP-IFN-2010-03-06 (International Finance)
- NEP-MAC-2010-03-06 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2010-03-06 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-TRA-2010-03-06 (Transition Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jon Faust, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," International Finance Discussion Papers 610, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Darvas, Zsolt, 2001. "Exchange rate pass-through and real exchange rate in EU candidate countries," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,10, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Martin Feldkircher, 2013. "A Global Macro Model for Emerging Europe," Working Papers 185, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
- Bálint Tamási & Balázs Világi, 2011. "Identification of credit supply shocks in a Bayesian SVAR model of the Hungarian economy," MNB Working Papers 2011/7, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
- Ábel, István & Kóbor, Ádám, 2010.
"A monetáris restrikció hatása strukturális VAR keretben
[The effect of monetary restriction in a vector auto-regression framework]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(5), pages 412-430.
- Aron Gereben & Ferenc Karvalits & Zalan Kocsis, 2011. "Monetary policy challenges during the crisis in a small open dollarised economy: the case of Hungary," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Capital flows, commodity price movements and foreign exchange intervention, volume 57, pages 179-188 Bank for International Settlements.
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