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The Hungarian monetary transmission mechanism: an assessment

In: Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies

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  • Balazs Vonnak

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary))

Abstract

This paper attempts to aggregate and summarise fresh results concerning the monetary transmission mechanism in Hungary. Within a research project at the MNB nine studies have been published investigating the channels through which Hungarian monetary policy affects the economy. We create a framework for synthesising particular results based on Mishkin’s (1996) classification. We analyse how aggregate demand is affected through those channels. Our conclusion is that during the past ten years monetary policy did exert a measurable influence on real activity and prices. The dominance of the exchange rate channel explains why prices respond faster and output responds more mildly than in closed developed economies like the U.S. or the euro area. We expect that after adopting the euro the absence of exchange rate will be compensated by the fact that the interest rate channel will work through foreign demand as well. Therefore, no significant asymmetries can be expected inside the euro area in terms of monetary transmission.

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This chapter was published in:

  • Bank for International Settlements, 2008. "Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 35, July.
    This item is provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Papers chapters with number 35-12.

    Handle: RePEc:bis:bisbpc:35-12

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    References

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    1. Anil K Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 1994. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Bank Balance Sheets," NBER Working Papers 4821, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Darvas, Zsolt, 2001. "Exchange rate pass-through and real exchange rate in EU candidate countries," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,10, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    3. Bennett T McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2001. "Monetary Policy for an Open Economy: An Alternative Framework with Optimising Agents and Sticky Prices," Discussion Papers 05, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    4. Peter N. Ireland, 2005. "The monetary transmission mechanism," Working Papers 06-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    5. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal To Replace The New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328, November.
    6. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
    7. Gabor Vadas & Gergely Kiss, 2005. "The Role of the Housing Market in Monetary Transmission," Macroeconomics 0512010, EconWPA.
    8. Zoltán M. Jakab & Viktor Várpalotai & Balázs Vonnák, 2006. "How does monetary policy affect aggregate demand? A multimodel approach for Hungary," MNB Working Papers 2006/4, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
    9. Ignazio Angeloni & Anil K. Kashyap & Benoit Mojon & Daniele Terlizzese, 2003. "The Output Composition Puzzle: A Difference in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Euro Area and U.S," NBER Working Papers 9985, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S., 1999. "What are the Effects of Monetary Policy on Output? Results from an Agnostic Identification Procedure," Discussion Paper 1999-28, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    11. András Rezessy, 2005. "Estimating the immediate impact of monetary policy shocks on the exchange rate and other asset prices in Hungary," MNB Occasional Papers 2005/38, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
    12. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996. "The Channels of Monetary Transmission: Lessons for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5464, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Zoltán M. Jakab & Mihály András Kovács, 2003. "Explaining the Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Hungary: Simulations with the NIGEM Model," MNB Working Papers 2003/5, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
    15. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," NBER Working Papers 5146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. van Els, Peter J. A. & Locarno, Alberto & Morgan, Julian & Villetelle, Jean-Pierre, 2001. "Monetary policy transmission in the euro area: What do aggregate and national structural models tell us?," Working Paper Series 0094, European Central Bank.
    17. Péter Benczúr, 2003. "Real Effects of Nominal shocks: a 2-sector Dynamic Model with Slow Capital Adjustment and Money-in-the-utility," MNB Working Papers 2003/9, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
    18. Roberto Rigobon & Brian P. Sack, 2002. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 8794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Mark P. Taylor & Ronald MacDonald, 1991. "Exchange Rate Economics: A Survey," IMF Working Papers 91/62, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June.
    21. Gábor Kátay & Zoltán Wolf, 2004. "Investment Behavior, User Cost and Monetary Policy Transmission - the Case of Hungary," MNB Working Papers 2004/12, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
    22. Szilárd Benk & Zoltán M. Jakab & Mihály András Kovács & Balázs Párkányi & Zoltán Reppa & Gábor Vadas, 2006. "The Hungarian Quarterly Projection Model (NEM)," MNB Occasional Papers 2006/60, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
    23. Balázs Vonnák, 2005. "Estimating the Effect of Hungarian Monetary Policy within a Structural VAR Framework," MNB Working Papers 2005/01, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
    24. Ádám Reiff, 2010. "Firm-level adjustment costs and aggregate investment dynamics – Estimation on Hungarian data," MNB Working Papers 2010/2, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
    25. Péter Karádi, 2005. "Exchange Rate Smoothing in Hungary," MNB Working Papers 2005/06, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
    26. Gábor Orbán & Zoltán Szalai, 2005. "The expected effect of the euro on the Hungarian monetary transmission," MNB Background Studies (discontinued) 2005/4, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
    27. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    28. Simon Hall & Mark Walsh & Anthony Yates, 1997. "How do UK companies set prices?," Bank of England working papers 67, Bank of England.
    29. Kim, Soyoung, 2001. "Effects of monetary policy shocks on the trade balance in small open European countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 197-203, May.
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    31. Hafedh Bouakez & Nooman Rebei, 2005. "Has Exchange Rate Pass-Through Really Declined in Canada?," Working Papers 05-29, Bank of Canada.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:
    1. Sági, Judit, 2012. "Debt trap - monetary indicators of Hungary's indebtedness," MPRA Paper 40343, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Jaromir Baxa & Miroslav Plasil & Borek Vasicek, 2012. "Changes in Inflation Dynamics under Inflation Targeting? Evidence from Central European Countries," Working Papers 2012/04, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    3. Regős, Gábor, 2013. "Kockázattal kiegészített Taylor-szabályok becslése Magyarországra
      [Estimation of risk-augmented Taylor rules for Hungary]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 670-702.
    4. Pirovano, Mara, 2012. "Monetary policy and stock prices in small open economies: Empirical evidence for the new EU member states," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 372-390.
    5. Ábel, István & Kóbor, Ádám, 2010. "A monetáris restrikció hatása strukturális VAR keretben
      [The effect of monetary restriction in a vector auto-regression framework]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(5), pages 412-430.

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