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Monetary policy transmission in an open economy: new data and evidence from the United Kingdom

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  • Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio

    (Bank of England)

  • Thwaites, Gregory

    (Bank of England)

  • Vicondoa, Alejandro

    (European University Institute)

Abstract

This paper constructs a new series of monetary policy surprises for the United Kingdom and estimates their effects on macroeconomic and financial variables, employing a high-frequency identification procedure. First, using local projections methods, we find that monetary policy has persistent effects on real interest rates and breakeven inflation. Second, employing our series of surprises as an instrument in a SVAR, we show that monetary policy affects economic activity, prices, the exchange rate, exports and imports. Finally, we implement a test of overidentifying restrictions, which exploits the availability of the narrative series of monetary policy shocks computed by Cloyne and Huertgen (2014), and find no evidence that either set of shocks contains any endogenous response to macroeconomic variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Thwaites, Gregory & Vicondoa, Alejandro, 2016. "Monetary policy transmission in an open economy: new data and evidence from the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 615, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0615
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    2. Lloyd, S. P., 2017. "Overnight Indexed Swap Market-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Expectations," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1733, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    3. Gareth Anderson & Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, 2020. "Crossing the Credit Channel: Credit Spreads and Firm Heterogeneity," Discussion Papers 2005, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    4. Hachula, Michael & Piffer, Michele & Rieth, Malte, 2020. "Unconventional Monetary Policy, Fiscal Side Effects and Euro Area (Im)balances," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 18(1), pages 202-231.
    5. Angrick, Stefan & Nemoto, Naoko, 2018. "Breaking Par: Short-Term Determinants of Yen-Dollar Swap Deviations," ADBI Working Papers 859, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    6. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, 2015. "Unsurprising Shocks: Information, Premia, and the Monetary Transmission," Discussion Papers 1613, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Apr 2016.
    7. Mary Everett & Jakob de Haan & David‐Jan Jansen & Peter McQuade & Anna Samarina, 2021. "Mortgage lending, monetary policy, and prudential measures in small euro‐area economies: Evidence from Ireland and the Netherlands," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 117-143, February.
    8. Thore Schlaak & Malte Rieth & Maximilian Podstawski, 2023. "Monetary policy, external instruments, and heteroskedasticity," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(1), pages 161-200, January.
    9. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jančoková, Martina, 2020. "Financial globalisation, monetary policy spillovers and macro-modelling: Tales from 1001 shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    10. Uluc, Arzu & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2018. "Capital requirements, monetary policy and risk shifting in the mortgage market," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 35(PB), pages 3-16.
    11. Diego Comin & Antonella Trigari & Javier Quintana Gonzalez & Tom Schmitz, 2019. "Measuring Productivity Growth in the Presence of Adjustment Costs, Markups and Variable Capacity Utilization," 2019 Meeting Papers 666, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Matthieu Bussière & Jin Cao & Jakob de Haan & Robert Hills & Simon Lloyd & Baptiste Meunier & Justine Pedrono & Dennis Reinhardt & Sonalika Sinha & Rhiannon Sowerbutts & Konstantin Styrin, 2021. "The interaction between macroprudential policy and monetary policy: Overview," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 1-19, February.
    13. Güneş Kamber & Madhusudan Mohanty, 2018. "Do interest rates play a major role in monetary policy transmission in China?," BIS Working Papers 714, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Semyon Malamud & Andreas Schrimpf, 2016. "Intermediation Markups and Monetary Policy Passthrough," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 16-75, Swiss Finance Institute.
    15. Martina Cecioni, 2018. "ECB monetary policy and the euro exchange rate," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1172, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    16. Coman, Andra, 2023. "Monetary policy spillovers and the role of prudential policies in the European Union," Working Paper Series 2854, European Central Bank.
    17. Lucas Hafemann & Peter Tillmann, 2020. "The Aggregate and Country-Specific Effectiveness of ECB Policy: Evidence from an External Instruments VAR Approach," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(6), pages 97-136, December.
    18. Elena Gerko & Hélène Rey, 2017. "Monetary Policy in the Capitals of Capital," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 721-745.
    19. Luca Brugnolini, 2018. "About Local Projection Impulse Response Function Reliability," CEIS Research Paper 440, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 09 Jun 2018.
    20. Lucas Hafemann & Peter Tillmann, 2017. "The aggregate and country-speci c e ectiveness of ECB policy: evidence from an external instruments (VAR) approach," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201720, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    21. Jung, Alexander & Uhlig, Harald, 2019. "Monetary policy shocks and the health of banks," Working Paper Series 2303, European Central Bank.
    22. Jongrim Ha, 2021. "Financial market spillovers of U.S. monetary policy shocks," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(5), pages 1221-1274, November.
    23. Alexander Tishin, 2019. "Monetary Policy Surprises in Russia," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 78(4), pages 48-70, December.
    24. Lucas Hafemann & Peter Tillmann, 2017. "The Aggregate and Country-Specific Effectiveness of ECB Policy: Evidence from an External Instruments (VAR) Approach," European Economy - Discussion Papers 063, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy transmission; external instrument; high-frequency identification; structural VAR; local projections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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