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The Role of the Housing Market in Monetary Transmission

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Author Info
Gabor Vadas (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)
Gergely Kiss (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

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Abstract

As part of the monetary transmission studies of the Magyar Nemzeti Bank, this paper attempts to analyse the role of the housing market in the monetary transmission mechanism of Hungary. The housing market can influence monetary transmission through three channels, namely, the nature of the interest burden of mortgage loans, asset (house) prices, and the credit channel. The study first summarises the experiences of developed countries, paying special attention to issues arising from the monetary union. It then examines the developments in the Hungarian housing and mortgage markets in the last 15 years, as well as the expected developments and changes attendant to the adoption of the euro. Using panel econometric techniques, the study investigates the link between macroeconomic variables and house prices in Hungary, and the effect of monetary policy on housing investment and consumption through the wealth effect and house equity withdrawal.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0512010.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: 15 Dec 2005
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0512010

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 38
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Web page: http://129.3.20.41

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Related research
Keywords: Housing; Monetary transmission; Mortgage market; Panel econometrics;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Poterba, James M, 1984. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 99(4), pages 729-52, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Gábor Vadas, 2001. "Beyond Macro Variables: Consumer Confidence Index and Household Expenditure in Hungary," MNB Background Studies (discontinued) 2001/2, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Whitehead, Christine M.E., 1999. "Urban housing markets: Theory and policy," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: P. C. Cheshire & E. S. Mills (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 40, pages 1559-1594 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Gábor Vadas, 2004. "Modelling Households’ Savings and Dwellings Investment – A Portfolio Choice Approach," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 7(1), pages 31-55. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994. "Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 1997. "Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 1615, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Ignazio Angeloni & Benoit Mojon & Anil K. Kashyap & Daniele Terlizzese, 2002. "Monetary transmission in the Euro Area: where do we stand?," Working Paper Series 114, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  9. Paolo carnazza & Giuseppe Parigi, 2001. "The Evolution of Confidence for European Consumers and Businesses in France, Germany and Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 406, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  10. Pain, Nigel & Westaway, Peter, 1997. "Modelling structural change in the UK housing market: A comparison of alternative house price models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 587-610, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Anderson, T. W. & Hsiao, Cheng, 1982. "Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-82, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. M Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Ron P Smith, 2004. "Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels," ESE Discussion Papers 16, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Balazs Vonnak, 2008. "The Hungarian monetary transmission mechanism: an assessment," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 235-257 Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  2. Balázs Vonnák, 2007. "The Hungarian Monetary Transmission Mechanism: an Assessment," MNB Working Papers 2007/3, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary). [Downloadable!]
  3. Balazs Egert & Dubravko Mihaljek, 2008. "Determinants of House Prices in Central and Eastern Europe," Working Papers 2008/1, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Balázs Égert & Peter Backé & Tina Zumer, 2006. "Credit growth in Central and Eastern Europe - new (over)shooting stars?," Working Paper Series 687, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Robert Shelburne & Jose Palacin, 2007. "Is There an East European Housing Bubble?," Global Economy Journal, International Trade and Finance Association, vol. 6(3), pages 1. [Downloadable!]
  6. Olga Arratibel & Reiner Martin & Davide Furceri, 2008. "Real convergence in Central and Eastern European EU member states - which role for exchange rate volatility?," Working Paper Series 929, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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