IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mnb/wpaper/2020-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Household Debt Revaluation and the Real Economy: Evidence from a Foreign Currency Debt Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Emil Verner

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Győző Gyöngyösi

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary))

Abstract

We examine the consequences of a sudden increase in household debt burdens by exploiting variation in exposure to household foreign currency debt during Hungary’s late-2008 currency crisis. The revaluation of debt burdens leads to higher default rates and a collapse in spending. These responses lead to a worse local recession, driven by employment losses at non-exporting firms, and negative spillover effects on nearby borrowers without foreign currency debt. The estimates translate into a multiplier on higher debt service of 1.67. The impact of debt revaluation is particularly severe when foreign currency debt is concentrated on household, rather than firm, balance sheets.

Suggested Citation

  • Emil Verner & Győző Gyöngyösi, 2020. "Household Debt Revaluation and the Real Economy: Evidence from a Foreign Currency Debt Crisis," MNB Working Papers 2020/2, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    • Handle: RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2020/2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mnb.hu/letoltes/mnb-wp-2020-2-final-en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Will Dobbie & Jae Song, 2015. "Debt Relief and Debtor Outcomes: Measuring the Effects of Consumer Bankruptcy Protection," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 1272-1311, March.
    2. Xavier Giroud & Holger M. Mueller, 2017. "Firm Leverage, Consumer Demand, and Employment Losses during the Great Recession," Working Papers 17-01, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    3. Joseph G. Altonji & Todd E. Elder & Christopher R. Taber, 2005. "Selection on Observed and Unobserved Variables: Assessing the Effectiveness of Catholic Schools," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 151-184, February.
    4. Matthew Rognlie & Andrei Shleifer & Alp Simsek, 2018. "Investment Hangover and the Great Recession," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 113-153, April.
    5. Martin Beraja & Erik Hurst & Juan Ospina, 2019. "The Aggregate Implications of Regional Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(6), pages 1789-1833, November.
    6. repec:mnb:ecbook:2006 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Gergely Kiss & Gábor Vadas, 2005. "The Role of the Housing Market in Monetary Transmission," MNB Background Studies (discontinued) 2005/3, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    8. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Herman Kamil & Carolina Villegas-Sanchez, 2016. "What Hinders Investment in the Aftermath of Financial Crises: Insolvent Firms or Illiquid Banks?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(4), pages 756-769, October.
    9. Hoyt Bleakley & Kevin Cowan, 2008. "Corporate Dollar Debt and Depreciations: Much Ado About Nothing?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 612-626, November.
    10. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M Reinhart & Kenneth S Rogoff, 2019. "Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor will Hold?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(2), pages 599-646.
    11. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis-Fernando Mejía, 2008. "Systemic Sudden Stops: The Relevance Of Balance-Sheet Effects And Financial Integration," NBER Working Papers 14026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2011. "House Prices, Home Equity-Based Borrowing, and the US Household Leverage Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2132-2156, August.
    13. Adrien Auclert, 2019. "Monetary Policy and the Redistribution Channel," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(6), pages 2333-2367, June.
    14. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis-Fernando Mejía, 2008. "Systemic Sudden Stops: The Relevance Of Balance-Sheet Effects And Financial Integration," NBER Working Papers 14026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Jae Sim & Simon Gilchrist, 2007. "Investment during the Korean financial crisis: A structural econometric approach," 2007 Meeting Papers 53, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Cerutti, Eugenio & Claessens, Stijn & Laeven, Luc, 2017. "The use and effectiveness of macroprudential policies: New evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 203-224.
    17. Peter Harasztosi & Attila Lindner, 2019. "Who Pays for the Minimum Wage?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(8), pages 2693-2727, August.
    18. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    19. Kim, Yun Jung & Tesar, Linda L. & Zhang, Jing, 2015. "The impact of foreign liabilities on small firms: Firm-level evidence from the Korean crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 209-230.
    20. Romain Ranciere & Aaron Tornell & Athanasios Vamvakidis, 2010. "Currency mismatch, systemic risk and growth in emerging Europe [Capital structure and financial risk: evidence from foreign debt use in East Asia]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 25(64), pages 597-658.
    21. Matthew Baron & Wei Xiong, 2017. "Credit Expansion and Neglected Crash Risk," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(2), pages 713-764.
    22. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
    23. Pinar Yesin, 2013. "Foreign currency loans and systemic risk in Europe," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 95(May), pages 219-236.
    24. Sumit Agarwal & Gene Amromin & Itzhak Ben-David & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Tomasz Piskorski & Amit Seru, 2017. "Policy Intervention in Debt Renegotiation: Evidence from the Home Affordable Modification Program," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(3), pages 654-712.
    25. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2007. "The Cross Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 89-117, March.
    26. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Tyler Muir, 2017. "How Credit Cycles across a Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 23850, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham & Isaac Sorkin & Henry Swift, 2020. "Bartik Instruments: What, When, Why, and How," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(8), pages 2586-2624, August.
    28. Zhen Huo & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2016. "Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, and the Great Recession," Staff Report 526, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    29. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    30. Pálóczi, Gábor & Pénzes, János & Hurbánek, Pavol & Halás, Marián & Klapka, Pavel, 2016. "Attempts to delineate functional regions in Hungary based on commuting data," MPRA Paper 74497, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    31. Ongena, Steven & Schindele, Ibolya & Vonnák, Dzsamila, 2021. "In lands of foreign currency credit, bank lending channels run through?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    32. Eichengreen, Barry & Hausmann, Ricardo (ed.), 2005. "Other People's Money," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226194554, October.
    33. Liliana Varela, 2018. "Reallocation, Competition, and Productivity: Evidence from a Financial Liberalization Episode," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(2), pages 1279-1313.
    34. Marco Di Maggio & Amir Kermani & Benjamin J. Keys & Tomasz Piskorski & Rodney Ramcharan & Amit Seru & Vincent Yao, 2017. "Interest Rate Pass-Through: Mortgage Rates, Household Consumption, and Voluntary Deleveraging," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(11), pages 3550-3588, November.
    35. Andreas Fuster & Paul S. Willen, 2017. "Payment Size, Negative Equity, and Mortgage Default," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 167-191, November.
    36. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Hake, Mariya & Stix, Helmut, 2013. "Households’ foreign currency borrowing in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1880-1897.
    37. Simon Gilchrist & Jae W. Sim, 2007. "Investment during the Korean Financial Crisis: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 13315, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    38. Aguiar, Mark, 2005. "Investment, devaluation, and foreign currency exposure: The case of Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 95-113, October.
    39. Brian S. Chen & Samuel G. Hanson & Jeremy C. Stein, 2017. "The Decline of Big-Bank Lending to Small Business: Dynamic Impacts on Local Credit and Labor Markets," NBER Working Papers 23843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    40. Karen Dynan, 2012. "Is a Household Debt Overhang Holding Back Consumption," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 44(1 (Spring), pages 299-362.
    41. Karen Dynan, 2012. "Is a Household Debt Overhang Holding Back Consumption," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(1 (Spring), pages 299-362.
    42. Xavier Giroud & Holger M. Mueller, 2017. "Firm Leverage, Consumer Demand, and Employment Losses During the Great Recession," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(1), pages 271-316.
    43. Adam Banai & Julia Kiraly & Marton Nagy, 2011. "The demise of the halcyon days in Hungary: “foreign” and “local” banks – before and after the crisis," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The global crisis and financial intermediation in emerging market economies, volume 54, pages 195-224, Bank for International Settlements.
    44. O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), 1999. "Handbook of Labor Economics," Handbook of Labor Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 3, number 3.
    45. Liliana Varela & Juliana Salomao, 2016. "Exchange Rate Exposure and Firm Dynamics," Working Papers 2016-278-05, Department of Economics, University of Houston.
    46. Brown, Martin & Ongena, Steven & Yesin, Pinar, 2011. "Foreign currency borrowing by small firms in the transition economies," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 285-302, July.
    47. Devereux, Michael B. & Smith, Gregor W., 2007. "Transfer problem dynamics: Macroeconomics of the Franco-Prussian war indemnity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2375-2398, November.
    48. Martin Brown & Marcel Peter & Simon Wehrmüller, 2009. "Swiss Franc Lending in Europe," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 64(02), pages 167-181, June.
    49. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, "undated". "The Employment Effects of Credit Market Disruptions: Firm-level Evidence from the 2008-09 Financial Crisis," Working Paper 90811, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    50. Sumit Agarwal & Gene Amromin & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Tim Landvoigt & Tomasz Piskorski & Amit Seru & Vincent Yao, 2015. "Mortgage Refinancing, Consumer Spending, and Competition: Evidence from the Home Affordable Refinancing Program," NBER Working Papers 21512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hardy, Bryan, 2023. "Foreign currency borrowing, balance sheet shocks, and real outcomes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    2. Liliana Varela & Juliana Salomao, 2016. "Exchange Rate Exposure and Firm Dynamics," Working Papers 2016-278-05, Department of Economics, University of Houston.
    3. Juliana Salomao & Liliana Varela, 2022. "Exchange Rate Exposure and Firm Dynamics [Credit Constraints and the Cyclicality of R&D Investment: Evidence from France]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(1), pages 481-514.
    4. Bryan Hardy & Felipe Saffie, 2019. "From carry trades to trade credit: financial intermediation by non-financial corporations," BIS Working Papers 773, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Gyöngyösi, Győző & Rariga, Judit & Verner, Emil, 2021. "The anatomy of consumption in a household foreign currency debt crisis," SAFE Working Paper Series 332, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    6. Niepmann, Friederike & Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim, 2022. "Foreign currency loans and credit risk: Evidence from U.S. banks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    7. Caballero, Julián, 2021. "Corporate dollar debt and depreciations: All’s well that ends well?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    8. Mueller, Holger M. & Yannelis, Constantine, 2019. "The rise in student loan defaults," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1), pages 1-19.
    9. Piskorski, Tomasz & Seru, Amit, 2021. "Debt relief and slow recovery: A decade after Lehman," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 1036-1059.
    10. Martin Harding & Mathias Klein, 2019. "Monetary Policy and Household Deleveraging," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1806, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    11. Adrien Auclert & Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham & Will Dobbie, 2019. "Macroeconomic Effects of Debt Relief: Consumer Bankruptcy Protections in the Great Recession," 2019 Meeting Papers 355, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Alin Marius Andrieş & Simona Nistor, 2018. "Systemic Risk and Foreign Currency Positions of Banks: Evidence from Emerging Europe," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(5), pages 382-421, September.
    13. Herwartz, Helmut & Ochsner, Christian & Rohloff, Hannes, 2020. "The credit composition of global liquidity," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 409, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    14. Martin Beraja & Andreas Fuster & Erik Hurst & Joseph Vavra, 2017. "Regional Heterogeneity and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 23270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Patrick Kehoe & Pierlauro Lopez & Virgiliu Midrigan & Elena Pastorino, 2020. "On the Importance of Household versus Firm Credit Frictions in the Great Recession," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 34-67, August.
    16. Fischer, Andreas M. & Yeşin, Pınar, 2022. "Foreign currency loan conversions and currency mismatches," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    17. Ongena, Steven & Schindele, Ibolya & Vonnák, Dzsamila, 2021. "In lands of foreign currency credit, bank lending channels run through?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    18. Kim, Yun Jung & Tesar, Linda L. & Zhang, Jing, 2015. "The impact of foreign liabilities on small firms: Firm-level evidence from the Korean crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 209-230.
    19. Adam M. Guren & Arvind Krishnamurthy & Timothy J. Mcquade, 2021. "Mortgage Design in an Equilibrium Model of the Housing Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(1), pages 113-168, February.
    20. David Berger & Nicholas Turner & Eric Zwick, 2020. "Stimulating Housing Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(1), pages 277-321, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal household debt; foreign currency debt; currency crisis; financial crisis; business cycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2020/2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lorant Kaszab (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/mnbgvhu.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.