Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Transfer Problem Dynamics: Macroeconomics of the Franco-Prussian War Indemnity

Contents:

Author Info

  • Michael B. Devereux

    ()
    (University of British Columbia)

  • Gregor W. Smith

    ()
    (Queen's University)

Abstract

We study the classic transfer problem of predicting the effects of an international transfer on the terms of trade and the current account. A two-country model with debt and capital allows for realistic features of historical transfers: they follow wartime increases in government spending and are financed partly by borrowing. The model is applied to the largest historical transfer, the Franco-Prussian War indemnity of 1871-1873. In these three years, France transferred to Germany an amount equal to 22 percent of a year's GDP. When the transfer is combined with measured shocks to fiscal policy and a proxy for productivity shocks over the period, the model provides a very close fit to the historical sample paths of French GDP, terms of trade, net exports, and aggregate consumption. This makes a strong case for the dynamic general equilibrium approach to studying the transfer problem.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca/working_papers/papers/qed_wp_1025.pdf
File Function: First version 2005
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Queen's University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 1025.

as in new window
Length: 55 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:1025

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Kingston, Ontario, K7L 3N6
Phone: (613) 533-2250
Fax: (613) 533-6668
Email:
Web page: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: transfer problem; current account; terms of trade;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2000. "The Transfer Problem Revisited: Net Foreign Assets and Real Exchange Rates," Working Papers 062000, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  2. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," NBER Working Papers 6455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Philip R. Lane & Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2001. "Long-Term Capital Movements," IMF Working Papers 01/107, International Monetary Fund.
    • Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2002. "Long-Term Capital Movements," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 73-136 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Mill, John Stuart, 1874. "Essays on Some Unsettled Questions of Political Economy," History of Economic Thought Books, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, edition 2, number mill1874.
  5. Ariel T. Burstein & Joao C. Neves & Sergio Rebelo, 2000. "Distribution Costs and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics During Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilizations," RCER Working Papers 473, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  6. Reinhart, Carmen & Ostry, Jonathan, 1992. "Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 6976, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Michael B. Devereux & Gregor W. Smith, 2005. "Transfer Problem Dynamics: Macroeconomics of the Franco-Prussian War Indemnity," Working Papers 1025, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  8. Eugene White, 1999. "Making the French Pay: The Costs and Consequences of the Napoleonic Reparations," Departmental Working Papers 199924, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  9. Philip L. Brock, 1996. "International Transfers, the Relative Price on Non-Traded Goods, and the Current Account," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(1), pages 163-80, February.
  10. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The intertemporal approach to the current account," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 34, pages 1731-1799 Elsevier.
  11. Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 2001. "Financial Globalization and Real Regionalization," Working Papers 01-05, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  12. Jones, Ronald W., 1975. "Presumption and the transfer problem," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 263-274, August.
  13. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1992. "Dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade: the S-curve," Working Paper 9211, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  14. Reinhart, Carmen & Ostry, Jonathan, 1991. "Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks," MPRA Paper 13716, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Pierpaolo Benigno, 2009. "Price Stability with Imperfect Financial Integration," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(s1), pages 121-149, 02.
  16. Brakman,Steven & Marrewijk,Charles van, 2009. "The Economics of International Transfers," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521118729, April.
  17. Bhagwati, Jagdish N & Brecher, Richard A & Hatta, Tatsuo, 1983. "The Generalized Theory of Transfers and Welfare: Bilateral Transfers in a Multilateral World," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(4), pages 606-18, September.
  18. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
  19. Kollmann, Robert, 2002. "Monetary Policy Rules in the Open Economy: Effects on Welfare and Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 3279, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Philip R. Lane, 2000. "The Transfer Problem Revisited," IMF Working Papers 00/123, International Monetary Fund.
  21. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2002. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," NBER Working Papers 9270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Stockman, Alan C & Tesar, Linda L, 1995. "Tastes and Technology in a Two-Country Model of the Business Cycle: Explaining International Comovements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 168-85, March.
  23. Flandreau, Marc, 1995. "An Essay on the Emergence of the International Gold Standard, 1870-80," CEPR Discussion Papers 1210, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  24. Ritschl, Albrecht, 1998. "Reparation transfers, the Borchardt hypothesis and the Great Depression in Germany, 1929 32: A guided tour for hard-headed Keynesians," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(01), pages 49-72, April.
  25. Kindleberger, Charles P., 1993. "A Financial History of Western Europe," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780195077384, September.
  26. Flandreau, Marc, 1996. "The French Crime of 1873: An Essay on the Emergence of the International Gold Standard, 1870–1880," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(04), pages 862-897, December.
  27. Gavin, Michael, 1992. "Intertemporal Dimensions of International Economic Adjustment: Evidence from the Franco-Prussian War Indemnity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 174-79, May.
  28. Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1992. "Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 495-517, September.
  29. Ohanian, Lee E, 1997. "The Macroeconomic Effects of War Finance in the United States: World War II and the Korean War," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 23-40, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Johri, Alok & Letendre, Marc-André & Luo, Daqing, 2011. "Organizational capital and the international co-movement of investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 511-523.
  2. Frank D Lewisf, 2006. "Compensation and the Abandoned Property of the 1948 Palestinian Refugees: Assessment and Implications," Working Papers 1117, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  3. Bodenstein, Martin, 2011. "Closing large open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 160-177, July.
  4. Michel Normandin & Martin Boileau, 2004. "The Current Account and the Interest Differential In Canada," Cahiers de recherche 04-09, HEC Montréal, Institut d'économie appliquée.
  5. Michael B. Devereux & Gregor W. Smith, 2005. "Transfer Problem Dynamics: Macroeconomics of the Franco-Prussian War Indemnity," Working Papers 1025, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  6. Pascal Towbin, 2013. "Financial Integration And External Sustainability," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 375-395, October.
  7. Gul Ertan Ozguzer & Luca Pensieroso, 2010. "Worthy Transfers? A Dynamic Analysis of Turkey's Accession to the European Union," Working Papers 1003, Izmir University of Economics.
  8. Michel Normandin & Martin Boileau, 2005. "Closing International Real Business Cycle Models with Restricted Financial Markets," Cahiers de recherche 05-03, HEC Montréal, Institut d'économie appliquée.
  9. International Monetary Fund, 2008. "Macroeconomic Effects of EU Transfers in New Member States," IMF Working Papers 08/223, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Michel Normandin & Martin Boileau, 2003. "Dynamics of the Current Account and Interest Differentials," Cahiers de recherche 03-05, HEC Montréal, Institut d'économie appliquée.
  11. Martin Bodenstein, 2006. "Closing open economy models," International Finance Discussion Papers 867, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:1025. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mark Babcock).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.