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Worthy Transfers ? A Dynamic Analysis of Turkey’s Accession to the European Union

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  • Gul ERTAN OZGUZER

    (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES))

  • Luca PENSIEROSO

    (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) FNRS)

Abstract

In this paper, we build a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model to study whether European citizens would benefit from the eventual accession of Turkey to the European Union. The results of the simulations show that Turkey's accession to the European Union is welfare enhancing for Europeans, provided that Turkish total factor productivity (TFP) increases sufficiently after enlargement. In the model with no capital mobility, the Europeans are better off it the Turkish TFP increase bridges more than 31% of the initial TFP gap between Turkey and the European Union. That figure becomes 45% when capital mobility is introduced.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) in its series Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) with number 2009029.

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Length: 24
Date of creation: 01 Oct 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvir:2009029

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Keywords: European Union; Turkey; Enlargement; Dynamic General Equilibrium; Open Economy Macroeconomics;

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