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Worthy Transfers ? A Dynamic Analysis of Turkey’s Accession to the European Union

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  • Gul ERTAN OZGUZER

    (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES))

  • Luca PENSIEROSO

    (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) FNRS)

Abstract

In this paper, we build a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model to study whether European citizens would benefit from the eventual accession of Turkey to the European Union. The results of the simulations show that Turkey's accession to the European Union is welfare enhancing for Europeans, provided that Turkish total factor productivity (TFP) increases sufficiently after enlargement. In the model with no capital mobility, the Europeans are better off it the Turkish TFP increase bridges more than 31% of the initial TFP gap between Turkey and the European Union. That figure becomes 45% when capital mobility is introduced.

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Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) in its series Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) with number 2009029.

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Length: 24
Date of creation: 01 Oct 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvir:2009029

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Keywords: European Union; Turkey; Enlargement; Dynamic General Equilibrium; Open Economy Macroeconomics;

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  1. Michael B. Devereux & Gregor W. Smith, 2004. "Transfer Problem Dynamics: Macroeonomics of the Franco-Prussian War Indemnity," Working Papers 022004, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  2. Gül, ERTAN ÖZGÜZER, 2007. "May Free Capital mobility before accession be unfavorable for admission to the EU ?," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2007035, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
  3. David Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1992. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The S-Curve," NBER Working Papers 4242, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson, 2005. "Unbundling Institutions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(5), pages 949-995, October.
  5. V.V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2000. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 7869, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Slobodan Djajic & Sajal Lahiri & Pascalis Raimondos-Møller, . "Transfer and the Intertemporal Terms of Trade," EPRU Working Paper Series 96-20, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  7. Peter G. Klein & Hung Luu, 2003. "Politics and Productivity," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(3), pages 433-447, July.
  8. Dawson, John W, 1998. "Institutions, Investment, and Growth: New Cross-Country and Panel Data Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(4), pages 603-19, October.
  9. Arjan M. Lejour & Ruud A. Mooij, 2005. "Turkish Delight: Does Turkey's Accession to the EU Bring Economic Benefits?," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(1), pages 87-120, 02.
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