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Abstract

We explore the economic implications of the possible Turkish accession to the European Union. We focus on three main changes associated with Turkish membership: (i) accession to the internal European Market; (ii) institutional reforms in Turkey triggered by EU-membership; and (iii) migration in response to the free movement of workers. Overall, the macroeconomic implications for EU countries are small but positive. European exports increase by around 20 percent. Turkey experiences larger economic gains than the EU: consumption per capita is estimated to rise by about 4 percent as a result of accession to the internal market and free movement of labour. If Turkey would succeed in reforming its domestic institutions in response to EU-membership, consumption per capita in Turkey could raise by an additional 9 percent. These benefits would spill over to the EU.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2004/wp-cesifo-2004-05/cesifo1_wp1183.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 1183.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1183

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Related research

Keywords: Turkey; regional economic integration; general equilibrium model; gravity equations; institutional reform; migration;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:

• F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
• F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

• NEP-ALL-2004-06-02 (All new papers)
• NEP-EEC-2004-06-02 (European Economics)

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1. Harry Flam, 2003. "Turkey and the EU: Politics and Economics of Accession," CESifo Working Paper Series 893, CESifo Group Munich.
   
   • Flam, Harry, 2003. "Turkey and the EU: Politics and Economics of Accession," Seminar Papers 718, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
2. Henri L.F. de Groot & Gert-Jan Linders & Piet Rietveld & Uma Subramanian, 2003. "The Institutional Determinants of Bilateral Trade Patterns," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-044/3, Tinbergen Institute, revised 30 Oct 2003.
   
   • Henri L. F. de Groot & Gert-Jan Linders & Piet Rietveld & Uma Subramanian, 2004. "The Institutional Determinants of Bilateral Trade Patterns," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 103-123, 02.
   • Henri L.F. De Groot & Gert-Jan Linders & Piet Rietveld & Uma Subramanian, 2003. "The Institutional Determinants of Bilateral Trade Patterns," ERSA conference papers ersa03p421, European Regional Science Association.
3. Arjan M. Lejour & Ruud A. de Mooij & Richard Nahuis, 2001. "EU Enlargement: Economic Implications for Countries and Industries," CESifo Working Paper Series 585, CESifo Group Munich.
   
   • Arjan Lejour & Ruud de Mooij & Richard Nahuis, 2001. "EU enlargement: economic implications for countries and industries," CPB Document 11, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
4. Sjed Ederveen & Joeri Gorter & Ruud de Mooij & Richard Nahuis, 2003. "Funds and Games: The Economics of European Cohesion Policy," Occasional Papers 03, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes.
5. Harrison, Glenn W. & Rutherford, Thomas F. & Tarr, David G., 1996. "Economic implications for Turkey of a customs union with the European Union," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1599, The World Bank.
   
   • Harrison, Glenn W. & Rutherford, Thomas F. & Tarr, David G., 1997. "Economic implications for Turkey of a Customs Union with the European Union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 861-870, April.
6. Henri L.F. de Groot & Gert-Jan Linders & Piet Rietveld & Uma Subramanian, 2003. "The Institutional Determinants of Bilateral Trade Patterns," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-044/3, Tinbergen Institute, revised 30 Oct 2003.
7. Ruud de Mooij & Paul Tang, 2003. "Four futures of Europe," CPB Special Publication 49, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
8. Borjas, George J., 1999. "The economic analysis of immigration," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 28, pages 1697-1760 Elsevier.

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Cited by:

1. Ozgul Bilici & Erkan Erdil & I. Hakan Yetkiner, 2008. "The Determining Role of EU in Turkey's Trade Flows: A Gravity Model Approach," Working Papers 0806, Izmir University of Economics.
2. Antonis Adam & Thomas Moutos, 2005. "Turkish Delight for Some, Cold Turkey for Others?: The Effects of the EU-Turkey Customs Union," CESifo Working Paper Series 1550, CESifo Group Munich.
3. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian T. Lundblad & Stephan Siegel, 2010. "The European Union, the Euro, and Equity Market Integration," NBER Working Papers 16583, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
   
   • Stephan Siegel & Christian Lundblad & Campbell R. Harvey & Geert Bekaert, 2011. "The European Union, the Euro, and Equity Market Integration," 2011 Meeting Papers 468, Society for Economic Dynamics.
4. Arjan Lejour & Paul Veenendaal & Gerard Verweij & Nico van Leeuwen, 2006. "Worldscan; a model for international economic policy analysis," CPB Document 111, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
5. Lejour, Arjan Marcel & Mervar, Andrea & Verweij, Gerard, 2008. "The Economic Effects of Croatia's Accession to the EU," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-6, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
   
   • Arjan Lejour & Andrea Mervar & Gerard Verweij, 2007. "The Economic Effects of Croatia's Accession to the EU," Working Papers 0705, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb.
6. Harun Ucak, 2011. "Turkey’s Population Dynamýcs As A Candidate Country For EU Membership," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 1(4), pages 180-198.
7. Guisan, M. Carmen, 2005. "Human Capital, Population Growth and Industrial Development in Mexico and Turkey: A Comparative Analysis with Other OECD Countries, 1964-2004," Economic Development 85, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business. Econometrics..
8. Gul Ertan Ozguzer & Luca Pensieroso, 2010. "Worthy Transfers? A Dynamic Analysis of Turkey's Accession to the European Union," Working Papers 1003, Izmir University of Economics.
   
   • Gül Ertan Özgüzer, 2009. "Worthy Transfers? A Dynamic Analysis of Turkey's Accession to the European Union," 2009 Meeting Papers 781, Society for Economic Dynamics.
   • Gul ERTAN OZGUZER & Luca PENSIEROSO, 2009. "Worthy Transfers ? A Dynamic Analysis of Turkey’s Accession to the European Union," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2009029, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
9. Arjan Lejour & Gerard Verweij & A. Mervar, 2007. "The economic effects Croatia's accession to the EU," CPB Document 154, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
10. Christian Dreger & Manuel Art�s & Rosina Moreno & Raúl Ramos & Jordi Suri�ach, 2007. "Study on the feasibility of a tool to measure the macroeconomic impact of structural reforms," European Economy - Economic Papers 272, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.

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