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Turkish Delight: Does Turkey's Accession to the EU Bring Economic Benefits?

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  • Arjan M. Lejour
  • Ruud A. Mooij

Abstract

Der Aufsatz untersucht die wirtschaftlichen Folgen eines möglichen Beitritts der Türkei zur Euro-päischen Union. Das Schwergewicht liegt auf den drei wichtigsten Veränderungen, die mit einer Mit-gliedschaft der Türkei einhergehen würden: (i) Zugang zum europäischen Binnenmarkt; (ii) Refor-men der türkischen Institutionen als Folge der EU-Mitgliedschaft; und (iii) Migration infolge der Freizügigkeit der Arbeitnehmer. Die makroökonomischen Folgen für die EU-Länder sind gering, aber positiv. Europäische Exporte werden um ca. 20% steigen. Für die Türkei werden die wirtschaft-lichen Gewinne höher sein als für die EU. Es wird geschätzt, dass die Konsumausgaben pro Kopf als Folge des Zugangs zum europäischen Binnenmarkt und der Freizügigkeit der Arbeitnehmer um etwa 4% steigen werden. Wenn es der Türkei gelingt, die internen Institutionen zu ändern, könnte der Konsum um weitere 9% steigen. Diese Gewinne würden sich auch auf die EU auswirken. Copyright 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd..

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Kyklos.

Volume (Year): 58 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 (02)
Pages: 87-120

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Handle: RePEc:bla:kyklos:v:58:y:2005:i:1:p:87-120

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References

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  1. Sjed Ederveen & Joeri Gorter & Ruud de Mooij & Richard Nahuis, 2003. "Funds and Games: The Economics of European Cohesion Policy," Occasional Papers 03, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes.
  2. Henri L.F. De Groot & Gert-Jan Linders & Piet Rietveld & Uma Subramanian, 2003. "The Institutional Determinants of Bilateral Trade Patterns," ERSA conference papers ersa03p421, European Regional Science Association.
  3. Harrison, Glenn W. & Rutherford, Thomas F. & Tarr, David G., 1997. "Economic implications for Turkey of a Customs Union with the European Union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 861-870, April.
  4. Ruud de Mooij & Paul Tang, 2003. "Four futures of Europe," CPB Special Publication 49, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  5. Flam, Harry, 2003. "Turkey and the EU: Politics and Economics of Accession," Seminar Papers 718, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  6. Arjan Lejour & Ruud de Mooij & Richard Nahuis, 2001. "EU enlargement: economic implications for countries and industries," CPB Document 11, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  7. Selahattin Bekmez, 2002. "Sectoral Impacts of Turkish Accession to the European Union: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Eastern European Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 40(2), pages 57-84, March.
  8. Borjas, George J., 1999. "The economic analysis of immigration," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 28, pages 1697-1760 Elsevier.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lundblad, Christian T. & Siegel, Stephan, 2013. "The European Union, the Euro, and equity market integration," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 583-603.
  2. Arjan Lejour & Gerard Verweij & A. Mervar, 2007. "The economic effects Croatia's accession to the EU," CPB Document 154, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  3. Gul ERTAN OZGUZER & Luca PENSIEROSO, 2009. "Worthy Transfers ? A Dynamic Analysis of Turkey’s Accession to the European Union," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2009029, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  4. Arjan Lejour & Paul Veenendaal & Gerard Verweij & Nico van Leeuwen, 2006. "Worldscan; a model for international economic policy analysis," CPB Document 111, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  5. Harun Ucak, 2011. "Turkey’s Population Dynamics As A Candidate Country For EU Membership," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 1(4), pages 180-198.
  6. Lejour, Arjan Marcel & Mervar, Andrea & Verweij, Gerard, 2008. "The Economic Effects of Croatia's Accession to the EU," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-6, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  7. Guisan, M. Carmen, 2005. "Human Capital, Population Growth and Industrial Development in Mexico and Turkey: A Comparative Analysis with Other OECD Countries, 1964-2004," Economic Development 85, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business. Econometrics..
  8. Schukkink, Martijn & Niemann, Arne, 2012. "Portugal and the EU’s Eastern Enlargement: A logic of identity endorsement," European Integration online Papers (EIoP), European Community Studies Association Austria (ECSA-A), vol. 16, 07.
  9. Antonis Adam & Thomas Moutos, 2005. "Turkish Delight for Some, Cold Turkey for Others?: The Effects of the EU-Turkey Customs Union," CESifo Working Paper Series 1550, CESifo Group Munich.
  10. Ketenci, Natalya, 2014. "The Effect of the European Union Customs Union on the Balance of Trade in Turkey," MPRA Paper 54662, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Christian Dreger & Manuel Art�s & Rosina Moreno & Raúl Ramos & Jordi Suri�ach, 2007. "Study on the feasibility of a tool to measure the macroeconomic impact of structural reforms," European Economy - Economic Papers 272, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.

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