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Turkish Delight: Does Turkey's Accession to the EU Bring Economic Benefits?

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Author Info
Arjan M. Lejour
Ruud A. Mooij

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Abstract

Der Aufsatz untersucht die wirtschaftlichen Folgen eines möglichen Beitritts der Türkei zur Euro-päischen Union. Das Schwergewicht liegt auf den drei wichtigsten Veränderungen, die mit einer Mit-gliedschaft der Türkei einhergehen würden: (i) Zugang zum europäischen Binnenmarkt; (ii) Refor-men der türkischen Institutionen als Folge der EU-Mitgliedschaft; und (iii) Migration infolge der Freizügigkeit der Arbeitnehmer. Die makroökonomischen Folgen für die EU-Länder sind gering, aber positiv. Europäische Exporte werden um ca. 20% steigen. Für die Türkei werden die wirtschaft-lichen Gewinne höher sein als für die EU. Es wird geschätzt, dass die Konsumausgaben pro Kopf als Folge des Zugangs zum europäischen Binnenmarkt und der Freizügigkeit der Arbeitnehmer um etwa 4% steigen werden. Wenn es der Türkei gelingt, die internen Institutionen zu ändern, könnte der Konsum um weitere 9% steigen. Diese Gewinne würden sich auch auf die EU auswirken. Copyright 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd..

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Kyklos.

Volume (Year): 58 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 (02)
Pages: 87-120
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Handle: RePEc:bla:kyklos:v:58:y:2005:i:1:p:87-120

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Harry Flam, 2003. "Turkey and the EU: Politics and Economics of Accession," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  2. Sjed Ederveen & Joeri Gorter & Ruud de Mooij & Richard Nahuis, 2003. "Funds and Games: The Economics of European Cohesion Policy," Occasional Papers 03, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes. [Downloadable!]
  3. Henri L.F. De Groot & Gert-Jan Linders & Piet Rietveld & Uma Subramanian, 2003. "The Institutional Determinants of Bilateral Trade Patterns," ERSA conference papers ersa03p421, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1989. "The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 143-53, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Harrison, Glenn W. & Rutherford, Thomas F. & Tarr, David G., 1997. "Economic implications for Turkey of a Customs Union with the European Union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 861-870, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Ruud de Mooij & Paul Tang, 2003. "Four Futures of Europe," CPB Special Publications 49, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  7. Borjas, George J., 1999. "The economic analysis of immigration," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 28, pages 1697-1760 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Flam, Harry, 2003. "Turkey and the EU: Politics and Economics of Accession," Seminar Papers 718, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ozgul Bilici & Erkan Erdil & I. Hakan Yetkiner, 2008. "The Determining Role of EU in Turkey's Trade Flows: A Gravity Model Approach," Working Papers 0806, Izmir University of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Antonis Adam & Thomas Moutos, 2005. "Turkish Delight for Some, Cold Turkey for Others?: The Effects of the EU-Turkey Customs Union," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  3. Arjan Lejour & Paul Veenendaal & Gerard Verweij & Nico van Leeuwen, 2006. "Worldscan; a model for international economic policy analysis," CPB Documents 111, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  4. Guisan, M. Carmen, 2005. "Human Capital, Population Growth and Industrial Development in Mexico and Turkey: A Comparative Analysis with Other OECD Countries, 1964-2004," Economic Development 85, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business. Econometrics.. [Downloadable!]
  5. Henk C. Kranendonk & Jan Bonenkamp & Johan P. Verbruggen, 2004. "A Leading Indicator for the Dutch Economy – Methodological and Empirical Revision of the CPB System," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  6. Arjan Lejour & Andrea Mervar & Gerard Verweij, 2007. "The economic effects of Croatia's accession to the EU," CPB Documents 154, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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