Foreign currency loans and systemic risk in Europe
AbstractForeign currency loans to the unhedged non-banking sector are remarkably prevalent in Europe and create a significant exchange-rate-induced credit risk to European banking sectors. In particular, Swiss franc (CHF)-denominated loans, popular in Eastern European countries, could trigger simultaneous bank failures if depreciation of the domestic currencies prevents unhedged borrowers from servicing the loans. Foreign currency loans thus pose a systemic risk from a “common market shock” perspective. The author uses a novel dataset of foreign-currency loans from 17 countries for 2007-11 (collected by the Swiss National Bank) and builds on the method suggested by Ranciere, Tornell, and Vamvakidis (2010) to quantify this systemic risk. The author finds that systemic risk is substantial in the non-euro area, while it is relatively low in the euro area. However, CHF-denominated loans are not the underlying source of the high systemic risk: Loans denominated in other foreign currencies (probably to a large extent in euros) contribute significantly more to the systemic risk in the non-euro area than CHF-denominated loans. Furthermore, systemic risk shows high persistence and low volatility during the sample period. The author also finds that banks in Europe have continuously held more foreign-currency denominated assets than liabilities, indicating their awareness of the exchange-rate-induced credit risk they face.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its journal Review.
Volume (Year): (2013)
Issue (Month): May ()
Other versions of this item:
- Pinar Yesin, 2013. "Foreign Currency Loans and Systemic Risk in Europe," Working Papers 13.06, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Eugenio Cerutti & Patrick M. McGuire & Stijn Claessens, 2011. "Systemic Risks in Global Banking," IMF Working Papers 11/222, International Monetary Fund.
- Martin Brown & Ralph De Haas, 2012.
"Foreign banks and foreign currency lending in emerging Europe,"
CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 27(69), pages 57-98, 01.
- Brown, Martin & de Haas, Ralph, 2012. "Foreign banks and foreign currency lending in emerging Europe," MPRA Paper 36323, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Co-Pierre Georg, 2011. "Basel III ans Systemic Risk Regulation - What Way Forward?," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 17-2011, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
- George Allayannis & Gregory W. Brown & Leora F. Klapper, 2003. "Capital Structure and Financial Risk: Evidence from Foreign Debt Use in East Asia," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2667-2710, December.
- Jarko Fidrmuc & Mariya Hake & Helmut Stix, 2011.
"Households’ Foreign Currency Borrowing in Central and Eastern Europe,"
171, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
- Fidrmuc, Jarko & Hake, Mariya & Stix, Helmut, 2013. "Households’ foreign currency borrowing in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1880-1897.
- Degryse, Hans & Havrylchyk, Olena & Jurzyk, Emilia & Kozak, Sylwester, 2012. "Foreign bank entry, credit allocation and lending rates in emerging markets: Empirical evidence from Poland," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 2949-2959.
- De Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000.
"Systemic risk: A survey,"
Working Paper Series
0035, European Central Bank.
- Georg, Co-Pierre, 2011. "The effect of the interbank network structure on contagion and common shocks," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2011,12, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Galindo, Arturo & Panizza, Ugo & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 2003. "Debt composition and balance sheet effects of currency depreciation: a summary of the micro evidence," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 330-339, December.
- Bill Francis & Iftekhar Hasan & Delroy Hunter, 2002.
"Emerging market liberalization and the impact on uncovered interest rate parity,"
2002-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Francis, Bill B. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Hunter, Delroy M., 2002. "Emerging market liberalization and the impact on uncovered interest rate parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 931-956, November.
- Beer, Christian & Ongena, Steven & Peter, Marcel, 2010.
"Borrowing in foreign currency: Austrian households as carry traders,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 2198-2211, September.
- Christian Beer & Steven Ongena & Marcel Peter, 2008. "Borrowing in Foreign Currency: Austrian Households as Carry Traders," Working Papers 2008-19, Swiss National Bank.
- Viral V. Acharya & Tanju Yorulmazer, 2008. "Information Contagion and Bank Herding," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(1), pages 215-231, 02.
- Stephan Barisitz, 2011. "Nonperforming Loans in CESEE – What Do They Comprise?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4.
- Schwaab, Bernd & Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, André, 2011. "Systemic risk diagnostics: coincident indicators and early warning signals," Working Paper Series 1327, European Central Bank.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anna Xiao).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.