Payment size, negative equity, and mortgage default
AbstractSurprisingly little is known about the importance of mortgage payment size for default, as efforts to measure the treatment effect of rate increases or loan modifications are confounded by borrower selection. We study a sample of hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages that have experienced large rate reductions over the past years and are largely immune to these selection concerns. We show that interest rate changes dramatically affect repayment behavior. Our estimates imply that cutting a borrower’s payment in half reduces his hazard of becoming delinquent by about two-thirds, an effect that is approximately equivalent to lowering the borrower’s combined loan-to-value ratio from 145 to 95 (holding the payment fixed). These findings shed light on the driving forces behind default behavior and have important implications for public policy.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Boston in its series Public Policy Discussion Paper with number 12-10.
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Andreas Fuster & Paul S. Willen, 2012. "Payment size, negative equity, and mortgage default," Staff Reports 582, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- NEP-ALL-2013-01-07 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2013-01-07 (Banking)
- NEP-URE-2013-01-07 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Christopher Foote & Kristopher Gerardi & Lorenz Goette & Paul Willen, 2009.
"Reducing Foreclosures: No Easy Answers,"
NBER Working Papers
15063, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christopher L. Foote & Kristopher S. Gerardi & Paul S. Willen, 2012.
"Why Did So Many People Make So Many Ex Post Bad Decisions? The Causes of the Foreclosure Crisis,"
NBER Working Papers
18082, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christopher L. Foote & Kristopher S. Gerardi & Paul S. Willen, 2012. "Why did so many people make so many ex post bad decisions?: the causes of the foreclosure crisis," Public Policy Discussion Paper 12-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Christopher L. Foote & Kristopher S. Gerardi & Paul S. Willen, 2012. "Why did so many people make so many ex post bad decisions? the causes of the foreclosure crisis," Working Paper 2012-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Ralph S.J Koijen & Otto Van Hemert & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2007.
NBER Working Papers
13361, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dean Karlan & Jonathan Zinman, 2004.
"Observing unobservables: Identifying information asymmetries with a consumer credit field experiment,"
Natural Field Experiments
00283, The Field Experiments Website.
- Dean Karlan & Jonathan Zinman, 2005. "Observing unobservables: identifying information asymmetries with a consumer-credit field experiment," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Apr.
- Dean Karlan & Jonathan Zinman, 2009. "Observing Unobservables: Identifying Information Asymmetries With a Consumer Credit Field Experiment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(6), pages 1993-2008, November.
- Dean S. Karlan & Jonathan Zinman, 2005. "Observing Unobservables: Identifying Information Asymmetries with a Consumer Credit Field Experiment," Working Papers 911, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
- Karlan, Dean S. & Zinman, Jonathan, 2007. "Observing Unobservables: Identifying Information Asymmetries with a Consumer Credit Field Experiment," CEPR Discussion Papers 6182, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Schwartz, Eduardo S & Torous, Walter N, 1989. " Prepayment and the Valuation of Mortgage-Backed Securities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 375-92, June.
- Neil Bhutta & Jane Dokko & Hui Shan, 2010. "The depth of negative equity and mortgage default decisions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Andrew Haughwout & Ebiere Okah & Joseph Tracy, 2009. "Second chances: subprime mortgage modification and re-default," Staff Reports 417, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Manuel Adelino & Kristopher Gerardi & Paul S. Willen, 2009.
"Why Don't Lenders Renegotiate More Home Mortgages? Redefaults, Self-Cures and Securitization,"
NBER Working Papers
15159, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Manuel Adelino & Kristopher Gerardi & Paul S. Willen, 2009. "Why don't lenders renegotiate more home mortgages?: redefaults, self-cures, and securitization," Public Policy Discussion Paper 09-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Manuel Adelino & Kristopher Gerardi & Paul S. Willen, 2009. "Why don't lenders renegotiate more home mortgages? redefaults, self-cures, and securitization," Working Paper 2009-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- von Furstenberg, George M, 1969. "Default Risk on FHA-Insured Home Mortgages as a Function of the Terms of Financing: A Quantitative Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 24(3), pages 459-77, June.
- Patrick Bajari & Chenghuan Sean Chu & Minjung Park, 2008. "An Empirical Model of Subprime Mortgage Default From 2000 to 2007," NBER Working Papers 14625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Brent W. Ambrose & Michael LaCour-Little, 2001. "Prepayment Risk in Adjustable Rate Mortgages Subject to Initial Year Discounts: Some New Evidence," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 29(2), pages 305-327.
- Rajdeep Sengupta, 2010. "Alt-A: the forgotten segment of the mortgage market," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 55-72.
- Andra C. Ghent & Marianna Kudlyak, 2011. "Recourse and Residential Mortgage Default: Evidence from US States 1," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(9), pages 3139-3186.
- Andrew Haughwout & Donghoon Lee & Joseph Tracy & Wilbert van der Klaauw, 2011. "Real estate investors, the leverage cycle, and the housing market crisis," Staff Reports 514, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Bhardwaj, Geetesh & Sengupta, Rajdeep, 2012. "Subprime mortgage design," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1503-1519.
- Nathan B. Anderson & Jane K. Dokko, 2011. "Liquidity problems and early payment default among subprime mortgages," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-09, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Agarwal, Sumit & Amromin, Gene & Ben-David, Itzhak & Chomsisengphet, Souphala & Evanoff, Douglas D., 2010.
"Market-Based Loss Mitigation Practices for Troubled Mortgages Following the Financial Crisis,"
Working Paper Series
2010-19, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
- Sumit Agarwal & Gene Amromin & Itzhak Ben-David & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Douglas D. Evanoff, 2011. "Market-based loss mitigation practices for troubled mortgages following the financial crisis," Working Paper Series WP-2011-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Kau, James B, et al, 1992. "A Generalized Valuation Model for Fixed-Rate Residential Mortgages," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(3), pages 279-99, August.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Diane Rosenberger).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.