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Mortgage-default research and the recent foreclosure crisis

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Abstract

This paper reviews recent research on mortgage default, focusing on the relationship of this research to the recent foreclosure crisis. Research on defaults was advanced both theoretically and empirically by the time the crisis began, but economists have moved the frontier further by improving data sources, building dynamic optimizing models of default, and explicitly addressing reverse causality between rising foreclosures and falling house prices. Mortgage defaults were also a key component of early research that pointed to subprime and other privately securitized mortgages as fundamental drivers of the housing boom, although this research has been criticized recently. Going forward, improvements to data and models will allow researchers to explore the central unsolved question in this area: why mortgage default is so rare, even for households with high levels of negative equity or financial distress.

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  • Christopher L. Foote & Paul S. Willen, 2017. "Mortgage-default research and the recent foreclosure crisis," Working Papers 17-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbwp:17-13
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    2. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Joe Cho Yiu Ng, 2018. "Macro Aspects of Housing," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_016, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    3. Jan K. Brueckner & James N. Conklin & N. Edward Coulson & Moussa Diop, 2023. "Default Costs and Repayment of Underwater Mortgages," CESifo Working Paper Series 10755, CESifo.
    4. Terry O'Malley, 2021. "The Impact of Repossession Risk on Mortgage Default," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(2), pages 623-650, April.
    5. Nadav Ben Zeev, 2019. "Adjustable-Rate Mortgages, Systematic Monetary Policy, And The Root Cause Of The Financial Crisis," Working Papers 1908, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    6. Alin Marius Andries & Anca Copaciu & Radu Popa & Razvan Vlahu, 2021. "Recourse and (strategic) mortgage defaults: Evidence from changes in housing market laws," Working Papers 727, DNB.
    7. Sumit Agarwal & Slava Mikhed & Barry Scholnick & Man Zhang, 2022. "Reducing Strategic Default in a Financial Crisis," Working Papers 21-36, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    8. McCann, Fergal & O'Malley, Terry, 2020. "Resolving mortgage distress after COVID-19: some lessons from the last crisis," Financial Stability Notes 7/FS/20, Central Bank of Ireland.
    9. Mayock, Tom & Tzioumis, Konstantinos, 2021. "New construction and mortgage default," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    10. Christopher L. Foote & Lara Loewenstein & Paul S. Willen, 2018. "Technological Innovation in Mortgage Underwriting and the Growth in Credit: 1985-2015," Working Papers (Old Series) 1816, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    11. Margaret Jacobson, 2019. "Beliefs, Aggregate Risk, and the U.S. Housing Boom," 2019 Meeting Papers 1549, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Michelle Bergmann, 2020. "The Determinants of Mortgage Defaults in Australia – Evidence for the Double-trigger Hypothesis," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2020-03, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    13. Sandler, Ryan, 2023. "Aligning incentives: The effect of mortgage servicing rules on foreclosures and delinquency," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    14. Manuel Adelino & William B. McCartney & Antoinette Schoar, 2020. "The Role of Government and Private Institutions in Credit Cycles in the U.S. Mortgage Market," NBER Working Papers 27499, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Duc Duy Nguyen & Steven Ongena & Shusen Qi & Vathunyoo Sila, 2022. "Climate Change Risk and the Cost of Mortgage Credit [Does climate change affect real estate prices? Only if you believe in it]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(6), pages 1509-1549.
    16. Manuel Adelino & W. Ben McCartney & Antoinette Schoar, 2020. "The Role of Government and Private Institutions in Credit Cycles in the U.S. Mortgage Market," Working Papers 20-40, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    17. Bracke, Philippe & Datta, Anupam & Jung, Carsten & Sen, Shayak, 2019. "Machine learning explainability in finance: an application to default risk analysis," Bank of England working papers 816, Bank of England.
    18. Stephen L. Ross & Yuan Wang, 2022. "Mortgage Lenders and the Geographic Concentration of Foreclosures," Working Papers 2022-001, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    19. Morris A Davis & William D Larson & Stephen D Oliner & Benjamin R Smith, 2023. "A Quarter Century of Mortgage Risk," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(2), pages 581-618.
    20. Kösem, Sevim, 2021. "Income inequality, mortgage debt and house prices," Bank of England working papers 921, Bank of England.
    21. Jackson T. Anderson & David M. Harrison & Michael J. Seiler, 2022. "Reducing Strategic Forbearance under the CARES Act: an Experimental Approach Utilizing Recourse Attestation," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 230-260, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mortgage default; foreclosures; housing boom and bust; financial crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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