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Mortgage timing

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  • Koijen, Ralph S.J.
  • Hemert, Otto Van
  • Nieuwerburgh, Stijn Van

Abstract

We study how the term structure of interest rates relates to mortgage choice at both household and aggregate levels. A simple utility framework of mortgage choice points to the long-term bond risk premium as distinct from the yield spread and the long yield as a theoretical determinant of mortgage choice: when the bond risk premium is high, fixed-rate mortgage payments are high, making adjustable-rate mortgages more attractive. We confirm empirically that the bulk of the time variation in both aggregate and loan-level mortgage choice can be explained by time variation in the bond risk premium, whether bond risk premia are measured using forecasters' data, a vector autoregressive (VAR) term structure model, or a simple household decision rule based on adaptive expectations. The household decision rule moves in lock-step with mortgage choice, lending credibility to a theory of strategic mortgage timing by households.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Economics.

Volume (Year): 93 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (August)
Pages: 292-324

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:93:y:2009:i:2:p:292-324

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576

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Keywords: Mortgage choice Household finance Bond risk premia;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Luigi Guiso & Paolo Sodini, 2012. "Household Finance. An Emerging Field," EIEF Working Papers Series 1204, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Mar 2012.
  2. Gregory Elliehausen & Min Hwang, 2010. "Mortgage contract choice in subprime mortgage markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-53, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Nikolai Roussanov & Michael Michaux & Hui Chen, 2011. "Houses as ATMs? Mortgage Refinancing and Macroeconomic Uncertainty," 2011 Meeting Papers 1369, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Andreas Fuster & James Vickery, 2013. "Securitization and the fixed-rate mortgage," Staff Reports 594, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  5. Robin Greenwood & Dimitri Vayanos, 2008. "Bond Supply and Excess Bond Returns," NBER Working Papers 13806, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Carlos Garriga & Finn E. Kydland & Roman Sustek, 2013. "Mortgages and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 19744, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Marekwica, Marcel & Schaefer, Alexander & Sebastian, Steffen, 2013. "Life cycle asset allocation in the presence of housing and tax-deferred investing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1110-1125.
  8. Bo Becker & Victoria Ivashina, 2011. "Cyclicality of Credit Supply: Firm Level Evidence," NBER Working Papers 17392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Yuliya Demyanyk & Otto Van Hemert, 2007. "Understanding the subprime mortgage crisis," Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers 2007-05, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  10. Andreas Fuster & Paul S. Willen, 2013. "Payment Size, Negative Equity, and Mortgage Default," NBER Working Papers 19345, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Gene Amromin & Jennifer Huang & Clemens Sialm & Edward Zhong, 2011. "Complex Mortgages," NBER Working Papers 17315, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Emanuel Moench & James Vickery & Diego Aragon, 2010. "Why is the market share of adjustable-rate mortgages so low?," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 16(Dec).
  13. Sumit Agarwal & Brent W. Ambrose, 2008. "Does it pay to read your junk mail? evidence of the effect of advertising on home equity credit choices," Working Paper Series WP-08-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  14. Mark Doms & John Krainer, 2007. "Innovations in mortgage markets and increased spending on housing," Working Paper Series 2007-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  15. Mayer, Chris & Piskorski, Tomasz & Tchistyi, Alexei, 2013. "The inefficiency of refinancing: Why prepayment penalties are good for risky borrowers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(3), pages 694-714.
  16. Dwight Jaffee & Howard Kunreuther & Erwann Michel-Kerjan, 2008. "Long Term Insurance (LTI) for Addressing Catastrophe Risk," NBER Working Papers 14210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Gogas, Periklis & Pragidis, Ioannis, 2010. "Does the Interest Risk Premium Predict Housing Prices?," DUTH Research Papers in Economics 1-2010, Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics.

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