This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Mortgage timing

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Koijen, Ralph S.J.
Hemert, Otto Van
Nieuwerburgh, Stijn Van

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

We study how the term structure of interest rates relates to mortgage choice at both household and aggregate levels. A simple utility framework of mortgage choice points to the long-term bond risk premium as distinct from the yield spread and the long yield as a theoretical determinant of mortgage choice: when the bond risk premium is high, fixed-rate mortgage payments are high, making adjustable-rate mortgages more attractive. We confirm empirically that the bulk of the time variation in both aggregate and loan-level mortgage choice can be explained by time variation in the bond risk premium, whether bond risk premia are measured using forecasters' data, a vector autoregressive (VAR) term structure model, or a simple household decision rule based on adaptive expectations. The household decision rule moves in lock-step with mortgage choice, lending credibility to a theory of strategic mortgage timing by households.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VBX-4W7J149-1/2/b132bee6f89988fbd7d1c95c4d8a0181
File Format:
File Function:
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Economics.

Volume (Year): 93 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (August)
Pages: 292-324
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:93:y:2009:i:2:p:292-324

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Heidi Boesdal).

Related research
Keywords: Mortgage choice Household finance Bond risk premia;

Other versions of this item:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Eugene F. Fama, 2006. "The Behavior of Interest Rates," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(2), pages 359-379. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Buraschi, Andrea & Jiltsov, Alexei, 2005. "Inflation risk premia and the expectations hypothesis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 429-490, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Michael W. Brandt & Pedro Santa-Clara, 2006. "Dynamic Portfolio Selection by Augmentingthe Asset Space," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2187-2217, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. John Y. Campbell & Joao F. Cocco, 2003. "Household Risk Management and Optimal Mortgage Choice," NBER Working Papers 9759, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Alexander W. Butler & Gustavo Grullon & James P. Weston, 2006. "Can Managers Successfully Time the Maturity Structure of Their Debt Issues?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1731-1758, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Markus K Brunnermeier & Christian Julliard, 2006. "Money Illusion and Housing Frenzies," FMG Discussion Papers dp579, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Campbell, John Y. & Chan, Yeung Lewis & Viceira, Luis M., 2003. "A multivariate model of strategic asset allocation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 41-80, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. John H. Cochrane & Monika Piazzesi, 2002. "Bond Risk Premia," NBER Working Papers 9178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2006. "Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Pu Shen & Jonathan Corning, 2001. "Can TIPS help identify long-term inflation expectations?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 61-87. [Downloadable!]
  11. Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2006. "Can Housing Collateral Explain Long-Run Swings in Asset Returns?," NBER Working Papers 12766, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Acharya, Viral V & Carpenter, Jennifer, 2002. "Corporate Bond Valuation and Hedging with Stochastic Interest Rates and Endogenous Bankruptcy," CEPR Discussion Papers 3328, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Joao F. Cocco, 2005. "Portfolio Choice in the Presence of Housing," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 535-567. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Jamshidian, Farshid, 1989. " An Exact Bond Option Formula," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 205-09, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Antonios Sangvinatsos & Jessica A. Wachter, 2005. "Does the Failure of the Expectations Hypothesis Matter for Long-Term Investors?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 179-230, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Joao F. Cocco, 2005. "Consumption and Portfolio Choice over the Life Cycle," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 491-533. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. John Y. Campbell, 2006. "Household Finance," NBER Working Papers 12149, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. Robert C. Merton, 1973. "Theory of Rational Option Pricing," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(1), pages 141-183, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  21. van Hemert, Otto, 2006. "Life-Cycle Housing and Portfolio Choice with Bond Markets," SIFR Research Report Series 44, Institute for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
  22. John Y. Campbell & Luis M. Viceira, 1998. "Who Should Buy Long-Term Bonds?," NBER Working Papers 6801, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  23. Jarrow, Robert & Yildirim, Yildiray, 2003. "Pricing Treasury Inflation Protected Securities and Related Derivatives using an HJM Model," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(02), pages 337-358, June. [Downloadable!]
  24. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Schwartz, Eduardo S & Torous, Walter N, 1989. " Prepayment and the Valuation of Mortgage-Backed Securities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 375-92, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. MALCOLM BAKER & RYAN TALIAFERRO & JEFFREY WURGLER*, 2006. "Predicting Returns with Managerial Decision Variables: Is There a Small-Sample Bias?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1711-1730, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Stanton, Richard, 1995. "Rational Prepayment and the Valuation Mortgage-Backed Securities," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 677-708. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. James Vickery, 2007. "Interest rates and consumer choice in the residential mortgage market: a summary," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May, pages 326-335.
  29. Michael J. Brennan & Yihong Xia, 2002. "Dynamic Asset Allocation under Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1201-1238, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  30. Baker, Malcolm & Greenwood, Robin & Wurgler, Jeffrey, 2003. "The maturity of debt issues and predictable variation in bond returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 261-291, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  31. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  32. Laura Veldkamp & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2005. "Information Acquisition and Portfolio Underdiversification," 2005 Meeting Papers 77, Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!]
  33. Xavier Gabaix & Arvind Krishnamurthy & Olivier Vigneron, 2007. "Limits of Arbitrage: Theory and Evidence from the Mortgage-Backed Securities Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(2), pages 557-595, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Dwight Jaffee & Howard Kunreuther & Erwann Michel-Kerjan, 2008. "Long Term Insurance (LTI) for Addressing Catastrophe Risk," NBER Working Papers 14210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Robin Greenwood & Dimitri Vayanos, 2008. "Bond Supply and Excess Bond Returns," NBER Working Papers 13806, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Mark Doms & John Krainer, 2007. "Innovations in mortgage markets and increased spending on housing," Working Paper Series 2007-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  4. Sumit Agarwal & Brent W. Ambrose, 2008. "Does it pay to read your junk mail? evidence of the effect of advertising on home equity credit choices," Working Paper Series WP-08-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
  5. Yuliya Demyanyk & Otto Van Hemert, 2007. "Understanding the subprime mortgage crisis," Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers 2007-05, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? Use the JEL tree to browse through the database by subfields.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-7.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.