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Borrower Credit and the Valuation of Mortgage-Backed Securities

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  • Francis A. Longstaff

Abstract

We study the valuation of mortgage-backed securities when borrowers may have to refinance at premium rates because of their credit. The optimal refinancing strategy often results in prepayment being delayed significantly relative to traditional models. Furthermore, mortgage values can exceed par by much more than the cost of refinancing. Applying the model to an extensive sample of mortgage-backed security prices, we find that the implied credit spreads that match these prices closely parallel borrowers' actual spreads at the origination of the mortgage. These results suggest that models that incorporate borrower credit into the analysis may provide a promising alternative to the reduced-form prepayment models widely used in practice. Copyright 2005 by the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association in its journal Real Estate Economics.

Volume (Year): 33 (2005)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 619-661

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Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:33:y:2005:i:4:p:619-661

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Cited by:
  1. Nicholas Sharp & David Newton & Peter Duck, 2008. "An Improved Fixed-Rate Mortgage Valuation Methodology with Interacting Prepayment and Default Options," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 307-342, April.
  2. Koijen, Ralph S.J. & Hemert, Otto Van & Nieuwerburgh, Stijn Van, 2009. "Mortgage timing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 292-324, August.
  3. Gene Amromin & Jennifer Huang & Clemens Sialm & Edward Zhong, 2011. "Complex Mortgages," NBER Working Papers 17315, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Arthur Korteweg & Morten Sorensen, 2012. "Estimating Loan-to-Value and Foreclosure Behavior," NBER Working Papers 17882, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Nicholas Sharp & Paul Johnson & David Newton & Peter Duck, 2009. "A New Prepayment Model (with Default): An Occupation-time Derivative Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 118-145, August.
  6. Aytek Malkhozov & Philippe Mueller & Andrea Vedolin & Gyuri Venter, 2013. "Mortgage Hedging in Fixed Income Markets," FMG Discussion Papers dp722, Financial Markets Group.

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