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Dynamic Portfolio Selection by Augmenting the Asset Space

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  • Michael W. Brandt
  • Pedro Santa-Clara
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    Abstract

    We present a novel approach to dynamic portfolio selection that is no more difficult to implement than the static Markowitz model. The idea is to expand the asset space to include simple (mechanically) managed portfolios and compute the optimal static portfolio in this extended asset space. The intuition is that a static choice among managed portfolios is equivalent to a dynamic strategy. We consider managed portfolios of two types: "conditional" and "timing" portfolios. Conditional portfolios are constructed along the lines of Hansen and Richard (1987). For each variable that affects the distribution of returns and for each basis asset, we include a portfolio that invests in the basis asset an amount proportional to the level of the conditioning variable. Timing portfolios invest in each basis asset for a single period and therefore mimic strategies that buy and sell the asset through time. We apply our method to a problem of dynamic asset allocation across stocks, bonds, and cash using the predictive ability of four conditioning variables.

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    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w10372.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10372.

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    Date of creation: Mar 2004
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    Publication status: published as Brandt, Michael W. and Pedro Santa-Clara. "Dynamic Portfolio Selection By Augmenting The Asset Space," Journal of Finance, 2006, v61(5,Oct), 2187-2217.
    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10372

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    1. John Y. Campbell & Luis M. Viceira, 1996. "Consumption and Portfolio Decisions When Expected Returns are Time Varying," NBER Working Papers 5857, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Ravi Jagannathan & Tongshu Ma, 2002. "Risk Reduction in Large Portfolios: Why Imposing the Wrong Constraints Helps," NBER Working Papers 8922, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Lubos Pastor & Robert F. Stambaugh, . "Comparing Asset Pricing Models: An Investment Perspective," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 16-99, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    4. John Y. Campbell, 1990. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 3246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Mark Britten-Jones, 1999. "The Sampling Error in Estimates of Mean-Variance Efficient Portfolio Weights," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(2), pages 655-671, 04.
    6. Brennan, Michael J. & Schwartz, Eduardo S. & Lagnado, Ronald, 1997. "Strategic asset allocation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(8-9), pages 1377-1403, June.
    7. Yacine Ait-Sahalia & Michael W. Brandt, 2001. "Variable Selection for Portfolio Choice," NBER Working Papers 8127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Keim, Donald B. & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1986. "Predicting returns in the stock and bond markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 357-390, December.
    9. Hansen, Lars Peter & Richard, Scott F, 1987. "The Role of Conditioning Information in Deducing Testable," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 587-613, May.
    10. Hodrick, Robert J, 1992. "Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Inference and Measurement," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 357-86.
    11. Cox, John C. & Huang, Chi-fu, 1989. "Optimal consumption and portfolio policies when asset prices follow a diffusion process," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 33-83, October.
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    Cited by:
    1. Ravi Bansal & Magnus Dahlquist & Campbell R. Harvey, 2004. "Dynamic Trading Strategies and Portfolio Choice," NBER Working Papers 10820, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Martin D. D. Evans & Viktoria Hnatkovska, 2005. "Solving General Equilibrium Models with Incomplete Markets and Many Assets," NBER Technical Working Papers 0318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Brandt, Michael W & Santa-Clara, Pedro & Valkanov, Rossen, 2005. "Parametric Portfolio Policies: Exploiting Characteristics in the Cross Section of Equity Returns," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt4ft420b6, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    4. Bhaduri, Saumitra & Saraogi, Ravi, 2010. "The predictive power of the yield spread in timing the stock market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 261-272, September.
    5. Michael W. Brandt & Pedro Santa-Clara & Rossen Valkanov, 2004. "Parametric Portfolio Policies: Exploiting Characteristics in the Cross Section of Equity Returns," NBER Working Papers 10996, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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