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Does the Failure of the Expectations Hypothesis Matter for Long-Term Investors?

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  • ANTONIOS SANGVINATSOS
  • JESSICA A. WACHTER

Abstract

We solve the portfolio problem of a long-run investor when the term structure is Gaussian and when the investor has access to nominal bonds and stock. We apply our method to a three-factor model that captures the failure of the expectations hypothesis. We extend this model to account for time-varying expected inflation, and estimate the model with both inflation and term structure data. The estimates imply that the bond portfolio of a long-run investor looks very different from the portfolio of a mean-variance optimizer. In particular, time-varying term premia generate large hedging demands for long-term bonds. Copyright 2005 by The American Finance Association.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00728.x
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 60 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 (02)
Pages: 179-230

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:60:y:2005:i:1:p:179-230

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References

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  1. Viceira, Luis & Campbell, John, 2001. "Who Should Buy Long-Term Bonds?," Scholarly Articles 3128709, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  2. Ait-Sahalia, Y. & Brandt, M.W., 2001. "Variable Selection for Portfolio Choice," Papers 34, Manitoba - Department of Economics.
  3. Nicholas Barberis, 2000. "Investing for the Long Run when Returns Are Predictable," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 225-264, 02.
  4. John Y. Campbell & Luis M. Viceira, 1996. "Consumption and Portfolio Decisions When Expected Returns are Time Varying," NBER Working Papers 5857, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Lynch, Anthony W., 1999. "Transaction costs and predictability: some utility cost calculations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 47-78, April.
  6. Wachter, Jessica A., 2003. "Risk aversion and allocation to long-term bonds," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 325-333, October.
  7. Campbell, John Y, 1986. " A Defense of Traditional Hypotheses about the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 183-93, March.
  8. John H. Cochrane & Monika Piazzesi, 2002. "Bond Risk Premia," NBER Working Papers 9178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Wachter, Jessica A., 2002. "Portfolio and Consumption Decisions under Mean-Reverting Returns: An Exact Solution for Complete Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(01), pages 63-91, March.
  10. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
  11. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Lioui, Abraham, 2007. "The asset allocation puzzle is still a puzzle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1185-1216, April.
  2. Koijen, R.S.J. & Nijman, T.E. & Werker, B.J.M., 2006. "Optimal Portfolio Choice with Annuitization," Discussion Paper 2006-78, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  3. Munk, Claus & Sørensen, Carsten, 2010. "Dynamic asset allocation with stochastic income and interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 433-462, June.
  4. Hidenori Futami, 2009. "Multi-factor Affine Term Structure Model with Single Regime Shift: Real Term Structure under Zero Interest Rate," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 347-369, December.
  5. Suleyman Basak & Georgy Chabakauri, 2010. "Dynamic Mean-Variance Asset Allocation," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(8), pages 2970-3016, August.
  6. Lioui, Abraham, 2013. "Time consistent vs. time inconsistent dynamic asset allocation: Some utility cost calculations for mean variance preferences," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1066-1096.
  7. JULES H. van BINSBERGEN & MICHAEL W. BRANDT & RALPH S. J. KOIJEN, 2008. "Optimal Decentralized Investment Management," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1849-1895, 08.
  8. Didier, Tatiana & Lowenkron, Alexandre, 2012. "The current account as a dynamic portfolio choice problem," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 518-541.
  9. De Jong, Frank, 2008. "Valuation of pension liabilities in incomplete markets," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(03), pages 277-294, November.
  10. Jules H. van Binsbergen & Michael W. Brandt, 2007. "Optimal Asset Allocation in Asset Liability Management," NBER Working Papers 12970, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Sørensen, Carsten & Trolle, Anders Bjerre, 2006. "Dynamic asset allocation and latent variables," Working Papers 2004-8, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Finance.
  12. Bovenberg, A.L. & Koijen, R.S.J. & Nijman, T.E. & Teulings, C.N., 2007. "Saving and investing over the life cycle and the role of collective pension funds," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-301942, Tilburg University.
  13. Larsen, Linda Sandris & Munk, Claus, 2012. "The costs of suboptimal dynamic asset allocation: General results and applications to interest rate risk, stock volatility risk, and growth/value tilts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 266-293.
  14. Don Kim, 2008. "Challenges in macro-finance modeling," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  15. Koijen, Ralph S.J. & Hemert, Otto Van & Nieuwerburgh, Stijn Van, 2009. "Mortgage timing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 292-324, August.
  16. Frank Jong, 2012. "Portfolio Implications of Cointegration Between Labor Income and Dividends," De Economist, Springer, vol. 160(4), pages 397-412, December.
  17. Olesya V. Grishchenko & Joel M. Vanden & Jianing Zhang, 2013. "The informational content of the embedded deflation option in TIPS," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  18. Greg Duffee, 2010. "Sharpe ratios in term structure models," Economics Working Paper Archive 575, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.

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