"Adaptive Expectations, Underparameterization and the Lucas Critique

This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data

"Adaptive Expectations, Underparameterization and the Lucas Critique

Author Info

George W. Evans () (University of Oregon Economics Department)
Garey Ramey ("University of California, San Diego")

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

A striking implication of the replacement of adaptive expectations by Rational Expectations was the "Lucas Critique," which showed that expectation parameters, and endogenous variable dynamics, depend on policy parameters. We consider this issue from the vantage point of a bounded rationality, where for transparency we model bounded rationality by means of simple adaptive expectations.We show that for a range of processes, monetary policy remains subject to the Lucas critique. However, there are also regimes in which the expectation parameter is locally invariant and the Lucas critique does not apply.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Oregon Economics Department in its series University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers with number 2001-8.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Length: 18
Date of creation: 29 Nov 2001
Date of revision: 01 Dec 2004
Handle: RePEc:ore:uoecwp:2001-8

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 1285 University of Oregon, 435 PLC, Eugene, OR 97403-1285
Phone: (541) 346-4661
Fax: (541) 346-1243
Email:
Web page: http://economics.uoregon.edu/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Bill Harbaugh).

Other versions of this item:

Article
- Evans, George W. & Ramey, Garey, 2006. "Adaptive expectations, underparameterization and the Lucas critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 249-264, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Paper
- George Evans & Garey Ramey, 2001. "Adaptive Expectations, Underparameterization and the Lucas Critique," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2001-11, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information
D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Ray C. Fair, 2006. "Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1570, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, revised Mar 2007. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Ray C. Fair, 2006. "Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000303, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2003. "Inflation scares and forecast-based monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-41, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2003. "Inflation scares and forecast-based monetary policy," Working Paper 2003-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2003. "Inflation scares and forecast-based monetary policy," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2003-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
- Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C, 2005. "Inflation Scares and Forecast-Based Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 4844, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2005. "Inflation scares and forecast-based monetary policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 498-527, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Ray C. Fair, 2005. "Natural Concepts in Macroeconomics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1525, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
Wiliam Branch & George W. Evans, 2005. "Model Uncertainty and Endogenous Volatility," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2005-21, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 26 Oct 2006. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- George W. Evans & William A. Branch, 2005. "Model Uncertainty and Endogenous Volatility," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 33, Society for Computational Economics.
- William Branch & George W. Evans, 2007. "Model Uncertainty and Endogenous Volatility," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(2), pages 207-237, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
George Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2007. " Anticipated Fiscal Policy and Adaptive Learning," CDMA Working Paper Series 0717, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2007. "Anticipated Fiscal Policy and Adaptive Learning," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2007-5, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 18 Feb 2007. [Downloadable!]
- Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2007. "Anticipated Fiscal Policy and Adaptive Learning," CEPR Discussion Papers 6216, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Evans, G.W. & Honkapohja ,S. & Mitra, K., 2007. "Anticipated Fiscal Policy and Adaptive Learning," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0705, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Imperfect knowledge, inflation expectations, and monetary policy," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2002-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2003. "Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/40, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2003. "Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 9884, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Imperfect knowledge, inflation expectations, and monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-27, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
Ray C. Fair, 2006. "A Comparison of Five Federal Reserve Chairmen: Was Greenspan the Best?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1577, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, revised Mar 2007. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Ray C. Fair, 2006. "A Comparison of Five Federal Reserve Chairmen: Was Greenspan the Best?," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000415, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
Wiliam Branch & George W. Evans, 2005. "A Simple Recursive Forecasting Model," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2005-3, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Feb 2005. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Branch, William A. & Evans, George W., 2006. "A simple recursive forecasting model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 158-166, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Klaus Adam, 2004. "Should macroeconomists consider restricted perception equilibria? Evidence from the experimental laboratory," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 338, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
Ray Fair, 2007. "A Comparison of Five Federal Reserve Chairmen: Was Greenspan the Best?," Contributions to Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 7(1), pages 1560-1560. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Wiliam Branch & John Carlson & George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2004. "Monetary Policy, Endogenous Inattention, and the Volatility Trade-off," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2004-19, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 15 May 2007. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- William A. Branch & John Carlson & George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2004. "Monetary policy, endogenous inattention, and the volatility trade-off," Working Paper 0411, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
- William Branch & John Carlson & George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2006. "Monetary Policy, Endogenous Inattention, and the Volatility Trade-off," 2006 Meeting Papers 106, Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!]
Bill Branch & George W. Evans, 2003. "Intrinsic Heterogeneity in Expectation Formation," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2003-32, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 04 Oct 2004. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- George Evans & William Branch, 2003. "Intrinsic Heterogeneity in Expectation Formation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 312, Society for Computational Economics.
- Branch, William A. & Evans, George W., 2006. "Intrinsic heterogeneity in expectation formation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 127(1), pages 264-295, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
George W. Evans & Avik Chakraborty, 2006. "Can Perpetual Learning Explain the Forward Premium Puzzle?," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2006-8, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 20 Aug 2006. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Chakraborty, Avik & Evans, George W., 2008. "Can perpetual learning explain the forward-premium puzzle?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 477-490, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Kaushik Mitra, 2004. "Is more data better?," Royal Holloway, University of London: Discussion Papers in Economics 04/19, Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London, revised Jul 2004. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Kaushik Mitra, . "Is more data better?," Discussion Papers 00/44, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
- Mitra, K., 1999. "Is More Data Better?," University of Helsinki, Department of Economics 452, Department of Economics.
- Mitra, Kaushik, 2005. "Is more data better?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 263-272, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Kevin J. Lansing, 2006. "Time-varying U.S. inflation dynamics and the New-Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Paper Series 2006-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Kevin J. Lansing, 2006. "Time-Varying U.S. Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," 2006 Meeting Papers 758, Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!]
- Kevin J. Lansing, 2006. "Time-Varying U.S. Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 488, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
- Kevin Lansing, . "Time Varying U.S. Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Did you know? Data contributors to RePEc receive monthly emails with details about downloads and abstract views of their works.

This page was last updated on 2008-11-16.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.