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Money Illusion and Housing Frenzies

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Author Info
Markus K. Brunnermeier
Christian Julliard

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Abstract

A reduction in inflation can fuel run-ups in housing prices if people suffer from money illusion. For example, investors who decide whether to rent or buy a house by simply comparing monthly rent and mortgage payments do not take into account that inflation lowers future real mortgage costs. We decompose the price-rent ratio in a rational component -- meant to capture the proxy effect and risk premia -- and an implied mispricing. We find that inflation and nominal interest rates explain a large share of the time-series variation of the mispricing, and that the tilt effect is unlikely to rationalize this finding.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 12810.

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Date of creation: Dec 2006
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12810

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
R2 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - Household Analysis

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  1. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2007. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 659, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 22 Jan 2008. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Ralph S.J Koijen & Otto Van Hemert & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2007. "Mortgage Timing," NBER Working Papers 13361, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Robert J. Shiller, 2007. "Low Interest Rates and High Asset Prices: An Interpretation in Terms of Changing Popular Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1632, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  4. Robert J. Shiller, 2007. "Low Interest Rates and High Asset Prices: An Interpretation in Terms of Changing Popular Economic Models," NBER Working Papers 13558, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2008. "Expected Inflation, Expected Stock Returns, and Money Illusion: What can we learn from Survey Expectations?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-036, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  6. Robert J Shiller, 2007. "Low Interest Rates and High Asset Prices: An Interpretation in Terms of Changing Popular Models," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000001682, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2007. "Inflation Illusion, Credit, and Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 12957, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Eerola, Essi & Määttänen, Niku, 2008. "On the importance of borrowing constraints for house price dynamics," Research Discussion Papers 8/2008, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
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