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Unexpected Inflation and Stock Returns Revisited--Evidence from Israel

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  • Amihud, Yakov

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of unexpected inflation on stock prices using Israeli data that provide a direct market-based measure of unexpected inflation: the price reaction of CPI-linked bonds following the CPI announcement. The results show that stock prices have a strong negative relationship with unexpected inflation. The Israeli setting rules out a number of hypotheses advanced in the United States to explain this relationship, such as nominal contracting, inflationary taxation, wealth transfer, and money illusion. This suggests that the negative effect of unexpected inflation is due to its negative association with real activity and its real economic cost. Copyright 1996 by Ohio State University Press.

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  • Amihud, Yakov, 1996. "Unexpected Inflation and Stock Returns Revisited--Evidence from Israel," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 22-33, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:28:y:1996:i:1:p:22-33
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    Cited by:

    1. Sellin, Peter, 1998. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Working Paper Series 72, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    2. Paudyal, Krishna & Saldanha, Liesl, 1997. "Stock returns and volatility in two regime markets: International evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 209-228.
    3. Jamie Alcock & Eva Steiner, 2017. "Unexpected Inflation, Capital Structure, and Real Risk-adjusted Firm Performance," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 53(2), pages 273-298, June.
    4. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Christian Julliard, 2008. "Money Illusion and Housing Frenzies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 135-180, January.
    5. Richard Podpiera, 2000. "Efficiency of Financial Markets in Transition: The Case of Macroeconomic Releases," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp156, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    6. Nadeem Iqbal & Sajid Rahman Khattak & Muhammad Arif Khattak, 2013. "Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables and KSE-100 Index: Evidence from Pakistan," Knowledge Horizons - Economics, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 5(4), pages 101-105, December.
    7. Massa, Massimo & Locarno, Alberto, 2005. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and the Stock Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 4828, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Barnes, Michelle L., 1999. "Inflation and returns revisited: a TAR approach," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(3-4), pages 233-245, November.
    9. Sung Bae & Taihyeup David Yi, 2009. "Structural breaks and the Fisher hypothesis in bond and stock markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(24), pages 1961-1973.
    10. Du, Ding, 2006. "Monetary policy, stock returns and inflation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 36-54.
    11. Díaz, Antonio & Jareño, Francisco, 2009. "Explanatory factors of the inflation news impact on stock returns by sector: The Spanish case," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 349-368, September.
    12. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2008. "Inflation Illusion, Credit, and Asset Prices," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 147-189, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Peter Sellin, 2001. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 491-541, September.
    14. Kadilli, Anjeza, 2015. "Predictability of stock returns of financial companies and the role of investor sentiment: A multi-country analysis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 26-45.
    15. Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2011. "Expected inflation, expected stock returns, and money illusion: What can we learn from survey expectations?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(5), pages 702-719, June.
    16. Brandt, Michael W. & Wang, Kevin Q., 2003. "Time-varying risk aversion and unexpected inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1457-1498, October.
    17. William Hardin & Xiaoquan Jiang & Zhonghua Wu, 2012. "REIT Stock Prices with Inflation Hedging and Illusion," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 262-287, June.
    18. Tsai, I-Chun, 2020. "Alternative explanation of the money illusion: The effect of unexpected low inflation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 110-123.
    19. Li, Lifang & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Zheng, Xinwei, 2010. "An analysis of inflation and stock returns for the UK," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 519-532, December.
    20. Jovanovic, Boyan & Ueda, Masako, 1998. "Stock-Returns and Inflation in a Principal-Agent Economy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 223-247, September.
    21. Virk, Nader Shahzad & Butt, Hilal Anwar, 2022. "Asset pricing anomalies: Liquidity risk hedgers or liquidity risk spreaders?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    22. Yu-Fen Chen & Thomas Chinan Chiang & Fu-Lai Lin, 2023. "Inflation, Equity Market Volatility, and Bond Prices: Evidence from G7 Countries," Risks, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-22, October.
    23. Boyd, John H. & Levine, Ross & Smith, Bruce D., 2001. "The impact of inflation on financial sector performance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 221-248, April.

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