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Equilibrium Asset Prices and Investor Behavior in the Presence of Money Illusion

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  • Basak, Suleyman
  • Yan, Hongjun

Abstract

This article analyzes the implications of money illusion for investor behavior and asset prices in a securities market economy with inflationary fluctuations. We provide a belief-based formulation of money illusion which accounts for the systematic mistakes in evaluating real and nominal quantities. The impact of money illusion on security prices and their dynamics is demonstrated to be considerable even though its welfare cost on investors is small in typical environments. A money-illusioned investor's real consumption is shown to generally depend on the price level, and specifically to decrease in the price level. A general-equilibrium analysis in the presence of money illusion generates implications that are consistent with several empirical regularities. In particular, the real bond yields and dividend price ratios are positively related to expected inflation, the real short rate is negatively correlated with realized inflation, and money illusion may induce predictability and excess volatility in stock returns. The basic analysis is generalized to incorporate heterogeneous investors with differing degrees of illusion.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 7398.

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Date of creation: Aug 2009
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7398

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Keywords: Asset Pricing; Bounded Rationality; Equilibrium; Expected Inflation; Money Illusion; New Keynesian;

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References

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  1. Ernst Fehr & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2004. "Money illusion and coordination failure," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2004 2004-02, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
  2. Süleyman Basak & Mike Gallmeyer, . "Currency Prices, the Nominal Exchange Rate, and Security Prices in a Two-Country Dynamic Monetary Equilibrium," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 9-98, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  3. Brunnermeier, Markus K & Julliard, Christian, 2007. "Money Illusion and Housing Frenzies," CEPR Discussion Papers 6183, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Hongjun Yan, 2008. "Natural Selection in Financial Markets: Does it Work?," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2648, Yale School of Management, revised 01 May 2008.
  5. repec:bla:restud:v:74:y:2007:i:4:p:1149-1174 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp, 2003. "Consensus consumer and intertemporal asset pricing with heterogeneous beliefs," Finance 0312001, EconWPA.
  7. Jianjun Miao & Danyang Xie, . "Monetary Policy and Economic Growth under Money Illusion," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2007-045, Boston University - Department of Economics.
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Cited by:
  1. Brunnermeier, Markus K & Julliard, Christian, 2007. "Money Illusion and Housing Frenzies," CEPR Discussion Papers 6183, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Jianjun Miao & Danyang Xie, . "Monetary Policy and Economic Growth under Money Illusion," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2007-045, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  3. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2007. "Inflation Illusion, Credit, and Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 12957, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2011. "Expected inflation, expected stock returns, and money illusion: What can we learn from survey expectations?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(5), pages 702-719, June.

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