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The Social Cost of Near-Rational Investment

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  • Tarek A. Hassan
  • Thomas M. Mertens

Abstract

We show that the stock market may fail to aggregate information even if it appears to be efficient and that the resulting decrease in the information content of stock prices may drastically reduce welfare. We solve a macroeconomic model in which information about fundamentals is dispersed and households make small, correlated errors when forming expectations about future productivity. As information aggregates in the market, these errors amplify and crowd out the information content of stock prices. When stock prices reflect less information, the conditional variance of stock returns rises. This increase in financial risk distorts the long-run level of capital accumulation, and causes costly (first-order) distortions in the long-run level of consumption.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 17027.

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Date of creation: May 2011
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17027

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  1. Michael Woodford, 2005. "Robustly Optimal Monetary Policy with Near Rational Expectations," NBER Working Papers 11896, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Randall Morck & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1990. "The Stock Market and Investment: Is the Market a Sideshow?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(2), pages 157-216.
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  10. Sushil Bikhchandani & David Hirshleifer & Ivo Welch, 1998. "Learning from the Behavior of Others: Conformity, Fads, and Informational Cascades," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 151-170, Summer.
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  15. John H. Cochrane, 1988. "The Sensitivity of Tests of the Intertemporal Allocation of Consumption to Near-Rational Alternatives," NBER Working Papers 2730, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
  17. Galeotti, Marzio & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 1994. "Stock Market Volatility and Investment: Do Only Fundamentals Matter?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 61(242), pages 147-65, May.
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Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. The high welfare cost of small information failures
    by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2011-06-09 15:19:00
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Cited by:
  1. Andreas Fuster & Benjamin Hebert & David Laibson, 2011. "Natural Expectations, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Asset Pricing," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2011, Volume 26, pages 1-48 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Klaus Adam & Johannes Beutel & Albert Marcet, 2014. "Stock Price Booms and Expected Capital Gains," Working Papers 757, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  3. Avanidhar Subrahmanyam & Sheridan Titman, 2013. "Financial Market Shocks and the Macroeconomy," NBER Working Papers 19383, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Tarek Alexander Hassan & Thomas Mertens, 2014. "Information Aggregation in a DSGE Model," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2014, Volume 29 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Rüdiger Bachmann & Steffen Elstner, 2013. "Firms’ Optimism and Pessimism," NBER Working Papers 18989, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Elena Asparouhova & Peter Bossaerts & Nilanjan Roy & William Zame, 2013. "‘Lucas’ In The Laboratory," EIEF Working Papers Series 1314, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised May 2013.
  7. Tarek A. Hassan & Thomas M. Mertens, 2014. "Information Aggregation in a DSGE Model," NBER Working Papers 20193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Itay Goldstein & Emre Ozdenoren & Kathy Yuan, 2011. "Trading Frenzies and their Impact on Real Investment," FMG Discussion Papers dp670, Financial Markets Group.
  9. repec:nbr:nberch:12923 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Tarek A. Hassan & Thomas M. Mertens, 2011. "Market Sentiment: A Tragedy of the Commons," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 402-05, May.

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