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Consensus consumer and intertemporal asset pricing with heterogeneous beliefs

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Author Info
Elyès Jouini (Dauphine)
Clotilde Napp (Dauphine & CREST)

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Abstract

The aim of the paper is to analyze the impact of heterogeneous beliefs in an otherwise standard competitive complete market economy. The construction of a consensus belief, as well as a consensus consumer, are shown to be valid modulo a finite variation aggregation bias, which takes the form of a discount factor. We then use our construction to rewrite in a simple way the equilibrium characteristics (state price density, market price of risk, risk premium, risk-free rate) in a heterogeneous beliefs framework and to analyze the impact of belief heterogeneity. We prove that in many cases, the impact of belief heterogeneity on the market price of risk can be easily estimated, with a relatively good precision, by considering the wealth-weighted average belief. The introduction of a discount factor in the aggregation procedure appears to be related to the interpretation of the heterogeneity of beliefs as a source of risk (see Cragg and Malkiel, 1982). However, our results permits us to explain why assets with higher belief dispersion have lower risk premia (Diether et al., 2002). Finally, we show that it is possible to construct specific parametrizations of the heterogeneous beliefs model that lead to globally higher risk premia, lower risk-free rates, and risk premia that are lower for assets with higher belief dispersion.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 0312001.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 05 Dec 2003
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0312001

Note: Type of Document - pdf; prepared on Win98; pages: 33
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Keywords: Consensus consumer; representative agent; heterogeneous beliefs; CCAPM; risk premium puzzle; risk-free rate puzzle;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Christian Gollier, 2007. "Whom should we believe? Aggregation of heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 107-127, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp, 2006. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and Asset Pricing in Discrete Time: An Analysis of Pessimism and Doubt," Post-Print halshs-00176500_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. François Gourio, 2009. "Disasters Risk and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 15399, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp, 2006. "Aggregation of Heterogeneous Beliefs," Post-Print halshs-00176505_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. A. A. Brown, 2009. "Heterogeneous Beliefs with Partial Observations," Quantitative Finance Papers 0907.4950, arXiv.org. [Downloadable!]
  6. Selima Ben Mansour & Elyès Jouini & Jean-Michel Marin & Clotilde Napp & Christian Robert, 2008. "Are risk-averse agents more optimistic? A Bayesian estimation approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(6), pages 843-860. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Dumas, Bernard J & Kurshev, Alexander & Uppal, Raman, 2007. "Equilibrium Portfolio Strategies in the Presence of Sentiment Risk and Excess Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 6455, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Basak, Suleyman, 2004. "Asset Prices with Heterogenous Beliefs," CEPR Discussion Papers 4256, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Domenico Colucci & Vincenzo Valori, 2009. "Heterogeneous adaptive expectations and cobweb phenomena," DiMaD Working Papers 2009-01, Dipartimento di Matematica per le Decisioni, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze. [Downloadable!]
  10. Elyès Jouini & Jean-Michel Marin & Clotilde Napp, 2008. "Discounting and Divergence of Opinion," Working Papers halshs-00176636_v2, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  11. Bernard Dumas & Alexander Kurshev & Raman Uppal, 2007. "Equilibrium Portfolio Strategies in the Presence of Sentiment Risk and Excess Volatility," NBER Working Papers 13401, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Bernard Dumas & Alexander Kurshev & Raman Uppal, 2005. "What Can Rational Investors Do About Excessive Volatility and Sentiment Fluctuations?," NBER Working Papers 11803, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Dumas, Bernard J & Kurshev, Alexander & Uppal, Raman, 2005. "What Can Rational Investors Do About Excessive Volatility and Sentiment Fluctuations?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5367, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Wei Xiong & Hongjun Yan, 2006. "Heterogeneous Expectations and Bond Markets," NBER Working Papers 12781, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. A. A. Brown & L. C. G. Rogers, 2009. "Heterogeneous Beliefs with Finite-Lived Agents," Quantitative Finance Papers 0907.4953, arXiv.org. [Downloadable!]
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