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Was There a British House Price Bubble? Evidence from a Regional Panel

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Author Info
Cameron, Gavin
Muellbauer, John
Murphy, Anthony

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Abstract

This paper investigates the bubbles hypothesis with a dynamic panel data model of British regional house prices between 1972 and 2003. The model consists of a system of inverted housing demand equations, incorporating spatial interactions and lags and relevant spatial parameter heterogeneity. The results are data consistent, with plausible long-run solutions and include a full range of explanatory variables. Novel features of the model include transaction cost effects influencing the speed of adjustment, and interaction effects between an index of credit availability and real and nominal interest rates. No evidence for a recent bubble is found.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5619.

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Date of creation: Apr 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5619

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Related research
Keywords: bubble; house prices; ripple effect;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
E39 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Other

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. Cameron, Gavin & Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 2006. "Was There a British House Price Bubble? Evidence from a Regional Panel," CEPR Discussion Papers 5619, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals, and Misperceptions," NBER Working Papers 11643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Gavin Cameron & John Muellbauer, 2001. "Earnings, unemployment, and housing in Britain," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 203-220. [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Williams, David M, 2009. "House prices and financial liberalisation in Australia," MPRA Paper 15212, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Gavin Cameron & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2006. "Was There A British House Price Bubble? Evidence from a Regional Panel," Economics Series Working Papers 276, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Rose Cunningham & Ilan Kolet, 2007. "Housing Market Cycles and Duration Dependence in the United States and Canada," Working Papers 07-2, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  4. Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo & John Muellbauer, . "Consumer credit conditions in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 314, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  5. Holly, S. & Pesaran, M.H. & Yamagata. T., 2006. "A Spatio-Temporal Model of House Prices in the US," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0654, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Iulia Traistaru-Siedschlag, 2006. "Macroeconomic Differentials and Adjustment in the Euro Area," Papers WP175, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Quan Gan & Robert J. Hill, 2008. "A New Perspective on the Relationship Between House Prices and Income," Discussion Papers 2008-13, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales. [Downloadable!]
  8. John N. Muellbauer, 2007. "Housing, credit and consumer expenditure," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 267- 334. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Anthony Murphy & John Muellbauer & Gavin Cameron, 2006. "Housing Market Dynamics and Regional Migration in Britain," Economics Series Working Papers 275, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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