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Was There a British House Price Bubble? Evidence from a Regional Panel

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Author Info
Cameron, Gavin
Muellbauer, John
Murphy, Anthony

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Abstract

This paper investigates the bubbles hypothesis with a dynamic panel data model of British regional house prices between 1972 and 2003. The model consists of a system of inverted housing demand equations, incorporating spatial interactions and lags and relevant spatial parameter heterogeneity. The results are data consistent, with plausible long-run solutions and include a full range of explanatory variables. Novel features of the model include transaction cost effects influencing the speed of adjustment, and interaction effects between an index of credit availability and real and nominal interest rates. No evidence for a recent bubble is found.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5619.

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Date of creation: Apr 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5619

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Keywords: bubble house prices ripple effect

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
E39 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Other

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Kearl, J R, 1979. "Inflation, Mortgages, and Housing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 1115-38, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Cameron, Gavin & Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 2006. "Was There a British House Price Bubble? Evidence from a Regional Panel," CEPR Discussion Papers 5619, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals, and Misperceptions," NBER Working Papers 11643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Gavin Cameron & John Muellbauer, 2001. "Earnings, unemployment, and housing in Britain," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 203-220. [Downloadable!]
  5. John Y. Campbell & Joao F. Cocco, 2003. "Household Risk Management and Optimal Mortgage Choice," NBER Working Papers 9759, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Roche, Maurice J., 2001. "The rise in house prices in Dublin: bubble, fad or just fundamentals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 281-295, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-38, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. James M. Poterba, 1992. "House Price Dynamics: The Role of Tax Policy and Demography," NBER Reprints 1706, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  11. Meen, Geoffrey, 2000. "Housing Cycles and Efficiency," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 47(2), pages 114-40, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. John Muellbauer & Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo, 2004. "Consumer credit conditions in the UK," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 70, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Barten, A. P. & Bettendorf, L. J., 1989. "Price formation of fish : An application of an inverse demand system," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1509-1525, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Cameron, Gavin & Muellbauer, John, 2000. "Earnings Biases in the United Kingdom Regional Accounts: Some Economic Policy and Research Implications," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(464), pages F412-29, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Geraint Johnes & Thomas Hyclak, . "House Prices and Regional Labor Markets," Working Papers ec15/93, Department of Economics, University of Lancaster.
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  24. Dennis R. Capozza & Patric H. Hendershott & Charlotte Mack & Christopher J. Mayer, 2002. "Determinants of Real House Price Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 9262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Gavin Cameron & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2006. "Was There A British House Price Bubble? Evidence from a Regional Panel," Economics Series Working Papers 276, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Rose Cunningham & Ilan Kolet, 2007. "Housing Market Cycles and Duration Dependence in the United States and Canada," Working Papers 07-2, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  3. Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo & John Muellbauer, . "Consumer credit conditions in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 314, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  4. Holly, S. & Pesaran, M.H. & Yamagata. T., 2006. "A Spatio-Temporal Model of House Prices in the US," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0654, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Anthony Murphy & John Muellbauer & Gavin Cameron, 2006. "Housing Market Dynamics and Regional Migration in Britain," Economics Series Working Papers 275, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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