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Peut-on parler de bulle sur le marché immobilier au Luxembourg ?

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  • Christophe Blot

Abstract

Les interrogations autour de l'évolution des prix de l'immobilier au Luxembourg sont récurrentes. Elles sont justifiées par l'augmentation régulière des prix. Aussi, on peut se demander si cette évolution est dictée par celle des fondamentaux ou si les prix de l'immobilier sont caractérisés par une bulle spéculative. Il ressort de l'analyse que la dynamique des prix à long terme est influencée par des facteurs d'offre et de demande. Selon que l'on considère le marché de l'immobilier résidentiel, non résidentiel ou non bâti, nous montrons que les coûts de construction, la croissance économique et démographique, la politique monétaire et les développements sur le marché des crédits contribuent à l'évolution des prix. Néanmoins, les limites inhérentes aux méthodes utilisées pour tester la présence de bulle permettent rarement d'exclure définitivement l'hypothèse de bulles épisodiques qui se développent puis éclatent.

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File URL: http://www.bcl.lu/fr/publications/cahiers_etudes/20/BCLWP020.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Luxembourg in its series BCL working papers with number 20.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: May 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bcl:bclwop:bclwp020

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Web page: http://www.bcl.lu/

Related research

Keywords: Marché immobilier; bulle spéculative; analyse dynamique;

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References

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