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The Real Price of Housing and Money Supply Shocks: Time Series Evidence and Theoretical Simulations

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  • Lastrapes, W.D.

Abstract

I estimate the dynamic responses of owner-occupied housing prices to money supply shocks, and compare these responses to those predicted by a dynamic equilibrium model of the housing market. The empirical responses are identified from general sets of restrictions that are consistent with a wide class of theoretical models. Using monthly data, I find that money shocks have real effects on the housing market: both relative housing prices and real sales rise in the short-run in response to positive shocks to the money supply. The estimated price responses closely match the predictions of the theoretical model for reasonable values of the theoretical parameters.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Georgia - College of Business Administration, Department of Economics in its series Papers with number 00-479.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fth:georec:00-479

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Postal: U.S.A.; The University of Georgia, College of Business Administration, Department of Economics, Athens, GA 30602
Web page: http://www.terry.uga.edu/
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Keywords: HOUSING ; PRICES ; EVALUATION;

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References

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  1. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148 Elsevier.
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  3. W. Douglas McMillin, 2001. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Comparing Contemporaneous versus Long-Run Identifying Restrictions," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 618-636, January.
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  16. Kearl, J R, 1979. "Inflation, Mortgages, and Housing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 1115-38, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Khiabani, Nasser, 2010. "How Important are Oil and Money Shocks in Explaining Housing Market Fluctuations in an Oil-exporting Country?: Evidence from Iran," MPRA Paper 34041, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Mar 2011.
  2. Seema Narayan & Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2011. "The Importance of Real and Nominal Shocks on the UK Housing Market," International Journal of Business and Economics, College of Business, and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 10(3), pages 219-234, December.
  3. Lastrapes, William D. & Potts, Todd B., 2006. "Durable goods and the forward-looking theory of consumption: Estimates implied by the dynamic effects of money," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1409-1430, August.
  4. Huang, MeiChi, 2014. "Bubble-like housing boom–bust cycles: Evidence from the predictive power of households’ expectations," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 2-16.
  5. Utku Akseki & Abdurrahman Nazif Çatık & Barış Gök, 2014. "A regime-dependent investigation of the impact of macroeconomic variables on the housing market activity in Turkey," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(2), pages 1081-1090.
  6. Vargas-Silva, Carlos, 2008. "Monetary policy and the US housing market: A VAR analysis imposing sign restrictions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 977-990, September.
  7. Nneji, Ogonna & Brooks, Chris & Ward, Charles W.R., 2013. "House price dynamics and their reaction to macroeconomic changes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 172-178.
  8. G. Carvalho, Pedro & Ribeiro, Alexandra, 2007. "Acnowledging for spatial effects in the Portuguese housing markets," MPRA Paper 6132, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Christophe Blot, 2006. "Peut-on parler de bulle sur le marché immobilier au Luxembourg ?," BCL working papers 20, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
  10. Elmer Sterken, 2004. "The Role of the IFO Business Climate Indicator and Asset Prices in German Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 1204, CESifo Group Munich.
  11. Elbourne, Adam, 2008. "The UK housing market and the monetary policy transmission mechanism: An SVAR approach," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 65-87, March.
  12. Chen, Pei-Fen & Chien, Mei-Se & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2011. "Dynamic modeling of regional house price diffusion in Taiwan," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 315-332.

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