How Housing Slumps End
AbstractWe construct a simple probit model of the determinants of real house price slump endings. We find that the probability of a house price slump ending is higher, the smaller was the pre-slump house price run-up; the greater has been the cumulative house price decline; the lower are real mortgage interest rates; and the higher is GDP growth. Slumps are longer, other things being equal, where housing supply is more elastic, but shorter the more developed are financial institutions. For slumps of a given size, shorter sharper slumps are associated with worse macroeconomic performance in the short run, but with better performance in the long run. This suggests that for sufficiently low discount rates, policy makers should not impede the decline in real house prices, and this conclusion is reinforced by the finding that after a certain duration, house price slumps can become self reinforcing. On the other hand, we also find evidence that during downturns, falling house prices can lead to lower private sector credit flows. Policy makers thus face a delicate balancing act. While they should not intervene to artificially prop up overvalued house prices, they should ensure that their macroeconomic and banking policies are such as to make a bottoming-out more likely. This suggests that they should keep real interest rates low, and ensure that banks are well-capitalised.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by IIIS in its series The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series with number iiisdp384.
Length: 51 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2011
Date of revision:
House prices; Slumps; Probit; VAR;
Other versions of this item:
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
- R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Marco Terrones & M. Ayhan Kose & Stijn Claessens, 2011.
"Financial Cycles: What? How? When?,"
IMF Working Papers
11/76, International Monetary Fund.
- Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2010. "Financial Cycles: What? How? When?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010, pages 303-343 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2011. "Financial Cycles: What? How? When?," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 303 - 344.
- Courtemanche, Charles & Snowden, Kenneth, 2011.
"Repairing a Mortgage Crisis: HOLC Lending and Its Impact on Local Housing Markets,"
The Journal of Economic History,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 71(02), pages 307-337, June.
- Courtemanche, Charles & Snowden, Ken, 2010. "Repairing a Mortgage Crisis: HOLC Lending and its Impact on Local Housing Markets," Working Papers 10-1, University of North Carolina at Greensboro, Department of Economics.
- Charles Courtemanche & Kenneth A. Snowden, 2010. "Repairing a Mortgage Crisis: HOLC Lending and its Impact on Local Housing Markets," NBER Working Papers 16245, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Carmen Reinhart & Vincent Reinhart, 2009.
"Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present,"
in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2008, pages 9-62
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2008. "Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present," NBER Working Papers 14321, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Reinhart, Vincent, 2008. "Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present," CEPR Discussion Papers 6996, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 1997.
"Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1615, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Michael D. Bordo & Olivier Jeanne, 2002.
"Boom-Busts in Asset Prices, Economic Instability, and Monetary Policy,"
NBER Working Papers
8966, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bordo, Michael D & Jeanne, Olivier, 2002. "Boom-Busts in Asset Prices, Economic Instability and Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 3398, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Claudio Borio & Patrick McGuire, 2004. "Twin peaks in equity and housing prices?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
- Jose Ceron & Javier Suarez, 2006.
"Hot And Cold Housing Markets: International Evidence,"
- Ceron, Jose A. & Suarez, Javier, 2006. "Hot and Cold Housing Markets: International Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 5411, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Mario Cleves & William W. Gould & Roberto G. Gutierrez & Yulia Marchenko, 2010. "An Introduction to Survival Analysis Using Stata," Stata Press books, StataCorp LP, edition 3, number saus3, July.
- Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989.
"The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-37, March.
- Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," NBER Working Papers 2506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Oecd, 2006. "Are House Prices Nearing a Peak?: A Probit Analysis for 17 OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 488, OECD Publishing.
- John Geanakoplos, 2009. "The Leverage Cycle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1715R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jan 2010.
- John Geanakoplos, 2010. "Solving the Present Crisis and Managing the Leverage Cycle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1751, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Nathalie Girouard & Mike Kennedy & Paul van den Noord & Christophe André, 2006. "Recent House Price Developments: The Role of Fundamentals," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 475, OECD Publishing.
- Micahael Tomz & Jason Wittenberg & Gary King, . "Clarify: Software for Interpreting and Presenting Statistical Results," Journal of Statistical Software, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(i01).
- Duffy, David & Durkan, Joe & O'Sullivan, Cormac, 2012. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 2011/Spring 2012," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20121, March.
- Duffy, David & Durkan, Joe & Casey, Eddie, 2012. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2012," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20122, March.
- Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller, 2013. "Growth-promoting Policies and Macroeconomic Stability," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1091, OECD Publishing.
- Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller, 2014. "Growth Policies and Macroeconomic Stability," OECD Economic Policy Papers 8, OECD Publishing.
- Duffy, David & FitzGerald, John, 2012. "The Irish Housing Market," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2012(2-Summer).
- Kennedy, Gerard & McQuinn, Kieran, 2012. "Why are Irish house prices still falling?," Economic Letters 05/EL/12, Central Bank of Ireland.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Eva Mateo).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.