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Analysis of house prices in Spain

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Author Info

  • Jorge Martínez Pagés

    ()
    (Banco de España)

  • Luis Ángel Maza

    ()
    (Banco de España)

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    Abstract

    House prices in Spain have shown one of the biggest cumulative growth rates among the OECD countries over the past five years and, indeed, over a more extensive period. This paper focuses on analysing this development and its possible determinants. The evidence provided suggests income and nominal interest rates are pivotal explanatory factors, although equity returns may also have been influential in the final years of the sample. According to the estimated models, house prices are currently above their long-term equilibrium level by an amount not unlike other times in the past. Therefore, something of a correction –of an intensity difficult to estimate but not necessarily sharper than in past episodes– may be expected in the future.

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    File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/03/Fic/dt0307e.pdf
    File Function: First version, June 2003
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    File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/03/Fic/dt0307.pdf
    File Function: First Spanish version, June 2003
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Banco de Espa�a in its series Banco de Espa�a Working Papers with number 0307.

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    Length: 45 pages
    Date of creation: Jun 2003
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0307

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    1. Stein, Jeremy C, 1995. "Prices and Trading Volume in the Housing Market: A Model with Down-Payment Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(2), pages 379-406, May.
    2. Holly, Sean & Jones, Natasha, 1997. "House prices since the 1940s: Cointegration, demography and asymmetries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 549-565, October.
    3. Meen, Geoffrey, 2002. "The Time-Series Behavior of House Prices: A Transatlantic Divide?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-23, March.
    4. Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 1997. "Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 1615, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. M.M.G. Fase, 2001. "Investments in Painting: The interaction of monetary return and psychic income," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 13 edited by Morten Balling.
    6. Kenny, Geoff, 1999. "Asymmetric Adjustment Costs and The Dynamics of Housing Supply," Research Technical Papers 3/RT/99, Central Bank of Ireland.
    7. David Genesove & Christopher Mayer, . "Loss Aversion and Seller Behavior: Evidence from the Housing Market," Zell/Lurie Center Working Papers 323, Wharton School Samuel Zell and Robert Lurie Real Estate Center, University of Pennsylvania.
    8. Juan Dolado, 1999. "A Cost-Benefit Analysis of Going from Low Inflation to Price Stability in Spain," NBER Chapters, in: The Costs and Benefits of Price Stability, pages 95-132 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Englund, Peter & Ioannides, Yannis M., 1997. "House Price Dynamics: An International Empirical Perspective," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 119-136, June.
    10. François Ortalo-Magné & Sven Rady, 2002. "Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraints," Wisconsin-Madison CULER working papers 02-01, University of Wisconsin Center for Urban Land Economic Research.
    11. Meen, Geoffrey P, 1990. "The Removal of Mortgage Market Constraints and the Implications for Econometric Modelling of UK House Prices," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(1), pages 1-23, February.
    12. Dougherty, Ann & Van Order, Robert, 1982. "Inflation, Housing Costs, and the Consumer Price Index," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(1), pages 154-64, March.
    13. DiPasquale Denise & Wheaton William C., 1994. "Housing Market Dynamics and the Future of Housing Prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-27, January.
    14. Wheaton, William C., 1974. "A comparative static analysis of urban spatial structure," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 223-237, October.
    15. Stephen Malpezzi, 1998. "A Simple Error Correction Model of House Prices," Wisconsin-Madison CULER working papers 98-11, University of Wisconsin Center for Urban Land Economic Research.
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    Cited by:
    1. Hervé Péléraux & Xavier Timbeau & Eric Heyer & Sabine Le Bayon, 2005. "L’immobilier, pilier de la croissance ou épée de Damoclès : bulle immobilière, causes et conséquences macro-économiques d’un retournement du marché immobilier," Sciences Po publications 2005-16, Sciences Po.
    2. Bellod Redondo, José Francisco, 2009. "El precio de la vivienda y la inflación en España," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(302), pages 379-405, abril-jun.
    3. Gimeno, Ricardo & Martí­nez-Carrascal, Carmen, 2010. "The relationship between house prices and house purchase loans: The Spanish case," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1849-1855, August.
    4. Garrido-Yserte, Rubén & Mañas-Alcón, Elena & Gallo-Rivera, Maria Teresa, 2012. "Housing and cost of living: Application to the Spanish regions," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 246-255.
    5. Costello, Greg & Fraser, Patricia & Groenewold, Nicolaas, 2011. "House prices, non-fundamental components and interstate spillovers: The Australian experience," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 653-669, March.
    6. Christophe Blot, 2006. "Peut-on parler de bulle sur le marché immobilier au Luxembourg ?," BCL working papers 20, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    7. Corradin, Stefano & Fontana, Alessandro, 2013. "House price cycles in Europe," Working Paper Series 1613, European Central Bank.
    8. Ayuso, Juan & Restoy, Fernando, 2007. "House prices and rents in Spain: Does the discount factor matter?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 291-308, November.
    9. Martin Lux & Petr Sunega, 2010. "The Sustainability of House Price Trends in the Czech Republic," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2010(2), pages 225-252.
    10. Ricardo Gimeno & Carmen Martínez-Carrascal, 2006. "The interaction between house prices and loans for house purchase. The Spanish case," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0605, Banco de Espa�a.
    11. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/1756 is not listed on IDEAS

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