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Latin America: Vulnerabilities Under Construction?

Author

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  • Mr. Luis M. Cubeddu
  • Mr. Camilo E Tovar Mora
  • Ms. Evridiki Tsounta

Abstract

This paper documents developments in mortgage credit and the housing sector in Latin America over the past decade, and compares them with those of other emerging economies. In particular, it examines the real estate and mortgage markets to assess whether (i) growth in mortgage credit is excessive compared to long-term trends; (ii) trends in house prices reflect changes in economic fundamentals; and (iii) the extent to which household and banking sector vulnerabilities could lead to potential fragilities. Although data limitations hamper a rigorous analysis of trends, our analysis suggests that while there are no imminent misalignments in the real estate and mortgage sectors, they could emerge if current trends persist. Strengthening supervision and addressing data gaps is thus critical to ensure adequate monitoring of risks and vulnerabilities in these sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Luis M. Cubeddu & Mr. Camilo E Tovar Mora & Ms. Evridiki Tsounta, 2012. "Latin America: Vulnerabilities Under Construction?," IMF Working Papers 2012/193, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2012/193
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    1. Fernando Borraz & Gerardo Licandro & Jorge Ponce, 2012. "Precios de viviendas. una metodología para evaluar desvíos respecto a sus fundamentos," Documentos de trabajo 2012016, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    2. Jorge Ponce, 2012. "Precio de fundamentos para las viviendas en Uruguay," Documentos de trabajo 2012017, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    3. Orrego, Fabrizio, 2014. "Precios de viviendas en Lima," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 28, pages 47-59.
    4. Porfirio Guevara & Robert Hill & Michael Scholz, 2017. "Hedonic indexes for public and private housing in Costa Rica," International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 10(1), pages 140-155, February.
    5. Diego Vílchez, 2015. "Assessing the House Price Dynamics in Lima," IHEID Working Papers 09-2015, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    6. Kurmaş Akdoğan, 2019. "Size and sign asymmetries in house price adjustments," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(48), pages 5268-5281, October.
    7. Mr. Niels-Jakob H Hansen & Ms. Olga Sulla, 2013. "Credit Growth in Latin America: Financial Development or Credit Boom?," IMF Working Papers 2013/106, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Camilo Vio, 2013. "Residential property price index: preliminary results for Chile," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the Sixth IFC Conference on "Statistical issues and activities in a changing environment", Basel, 28-29 August 2012., volume 36, pages 123-133, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Renzo Rossini & Zenon Quispe & Enrique Serrano, 2013. "Foreign exchange intervention in Peru," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Sovereign risk: a world without risk-free assets?, volume 73, pages 243-262, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Rossini, Renzo & Quispe, Zenón & Serrano, Enrique, 2014. "Intervención cambiaria en el Perú: 2007 a 2013," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 27, pages 9-24.
    11. Vílchez, Diego, 2015. "Evaluando las Dinámicas de Precios en el Sector Inmobiliario: Evidencia para Perú," Working Papers 2015-013, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    12. Antje Hildebrandt & Duy T. Huynh-Olesen & Katharina Steiner & Karin Wagner, 2013. "Residential Property Prices in Central, Eastern and Southeastern European Countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 52-76.
    13. Carmen Silva & Camilo Vio, 2015. "Housing prices and macroeconomic factors: evidence from Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 18(1), pages 4-24, April.
    14. Pásztor, Szabolcs & Kovács, Levente, 2018. "A globális jelzálogpiac helyzete és kihívásai [The state of global mortgage markets and the challenges to them]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1225-1256.
    15. Hansen, Niels-Jakob & Sulla, Olga, 2013. "El crecimiento del crédito en América Latina: ¿Desarrollo financiero o boom crediticio?," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 25, pages 51-80.

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