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Econometric Tests Of Asset Price Bubbles: Taking Stock

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  • Refet S. Gürkaynak

Abstract

Can asset price bubbles be detected? This survey of econometric tests of asset price bubbles shows that, despite recent advances, econometric detection of asset price bubbles cannot be achieved with a satisfactory degree of certainty. For each paper that finds evidence of bubbles, there is another one that fits the data equally well without allowing for a bubble. We are still unable to distinguish bubbles from time-varying or regime-switching fundamentals, while many small sample econometrics problems of bubble tests remain unresolved. Copyright 2008 The Author Journal compilation � 2008 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Journal of Economic Surveys.

Volume (Year): 22 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (02)
Pages: 166-186

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jecsur:v:22:y:2008:i:1:p:166-186

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Cited by:
  1. T. Kaizoji & M. Leiss & A. Saichev & D. Sornette, 2011. "Super-exponential endogenous bubbles in an equilibrium model of rational and noise traders," Papers 1109.4726, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2014.
  2. Colin A. Carter & Gordon C. Rausser & Aaron Smith, 2011. "Commodity Booms and Busts," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 87-118, October.
  3. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shu-Ping Shi & Jun Yu, 2011. "Testing for Multiple Bubbles," Working Papers CoFie-03-2011, Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics.
  4. Sornette, Didier & Woodard, Ryan & Yan, Wanfeng & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2013. "Clarifications to questions and criticisms on the Johansen–Ledoit–Sornette financial bubble model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(19), pages 4417-4428.
  5. Lehkonen, Heikki, 2010. "Bubbles in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 113-117, March.
  6. Bird, R. & Menzies, G. & Dixon, P. & Rimmer, M., 2011. "The economic costs of US stock mispricing," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 552-567, July.
  7. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2008. "Empirical Assessment of the Present Value Model of Stock Prices Using the Data from Thailand’s Stock Market," MPRA Paper 55156, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Friedrich Geiecke & Mark Trede, 2010. "A Direct Test of Rational Bubbles," CQE Working Papers 1310, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
  9. Michael Fr�mmel & Robinson Kruse, 2012. "Testing for a rational bubble under long memory," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(11), pages 1723-1732, November.
  10. Bohl, Martin T. & Kaufmann, Philipp & Stephan, Patrick M., 2013. "From hero to zero: Evidence of performance reversal and speculative bubbles in German renewable energy stocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 40-51.
  11. Cynthia A. Bansa & Martha A. Starr, 2011. "Distributional costs of the housing-price bust," Working Papers 2011-04, American University, Department of Economics.
  12. Rapach, David E. & Strauss, Jack K., 2009. "Differences in housing price forecastability across US states," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 351-372.
  13. Maximilian Brauers & Matthias Thomas & Joachim Zietz, 2014. "Are There Rational Bubbles in REITs? New Evidence from a Complex Systems Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 165-184, August.
  14. Matthew S. Yiu & Jun Yu & Lu Jin, 2012. "Detecting Bubbles in Hong Kong Residential Property Market," Working Papers CoFie-03-2012, Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics.
  15. Andrea Nobili & Francesco Zollino, 2012. "A structural model for the housing and credit markets in Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 887, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  16. José Francisco Bellod Redondo, 2011. "Detección de burbujas inmobiliarias: el caso español," Contribuciones a la Economía, Grupo Eumed.net (Universidad de Málaga), issue 2011-05, May.
  17. Wosnitza, Jan Henrik & Denz, Cornelia, 2013. "Liquidity crisis detection: An application of log-periodic power law structures to default prediction," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(17), pages 3666-3681.
  18. Asako, Kazumi & Liu, Zhentao, 2013. "A statistical model of speculative bubbles, with applications to the stock markets of the United States, Japan, and China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2639-2651.

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