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Rational Bubbles in the Stock Market: Accounting for the U.S. Stock-Price Volatility

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  • Wu, Yangru

Abstract

Can rational stochastic asset bubbles help explain the excess volatility of stock prices? The bubble considered here is treated as an unobserved state vector in the state-space model and is easily estimated using the Kalman filter. The author finds that the bubble components estimated account for a substantial portion of U.S. stock prices, and the model does a credible job in fitting the data, especially during several bull and bear markets in this century. Much of the deviation of stock prices from the present-value model are captured by the bubble. Copyright 1997 by Oxford University Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Western Economic Association International in its journal Economic Inquiry.

Volume (Year): 35 (1997)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 309-19

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Handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:35:y:1997:i:2:p:309-19

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Cited by:
  1. Esteban Gómez & Sandra Rozo, . "Beyond Bubbles: The role of asset prices in early-warning indicators," Borradores de Economia 457, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  2. Peter C.B. Phillips & Yangru Wu & Jun Yu, 2009. "Explosive Behavior in the 1990s Nasdaq: When Did Exuberance Escalate Asset Values?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1699, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  3. Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2005. "Econometric tests of asset price bubbles: taking stock," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-04, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Paulo Horta, 2013. "Contagion Effects in the European Nyse Euronext Stock Markets in the Context of the 2010 Sovereign Debt Crisis," CEFAGE-UE Working Papers 2013_12, University of Evora, CEFAGE-UE (Portugal).
  5. Kim, Bong Han & Min, Hong-Ghi, 2011. "Household lending, interest rates and housing price bubbles in Korea: Regime switching model and Kalman filter approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1415-1423, May.
  6. Nael Al-Anaswah & Bernd Wilfling, 2009. "Identification of speculative bubbles using state-space models with Markov-switching," CQE Working Papers 0309, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
  7. Nathan S. Balke & Mark E. Wohar, 2009. "Market fundamentals versus rational bubbles in stock prices: a Bayesian perspective," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 35-75.
  8. Qin Xiao & Randolph Gee Kwang Tan, 2006. "Signal Extraction with Kalman Filter: A Study of the Hong Kong Property Price Bubbles," Economic Growth centre Working Paper Series 0601, Nanyang Technolgical University, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Economic Growth centre.
  9. Green, Christopher J. & Maggioni, Paolo & Murinde, Victor, 2000. "Regulatory lessons for emerging stock markets from a century of evidence on transactions costs and share price volatility in the London Stock Exchange," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 577-601, April.
  10. Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Detecting asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Scientific Monographs E:47/2012, Bank of Finland.
  11. Deev, Oleg & Kajurova, Veronika & Stavarek, Daniel, 2013. "Testing rational speculative bubbles in Central European stock markets," MPRA Paper 46582, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Vítor Caldeirinha & J. Augusto Felício & Andreia Dionísio, 2013. "Effect of the container terminal characteristics on performance," CEFAGE-UE Working Papers 2013_13, University of Evora, CEFAGE-UE (Portugal).
  13. Nuriddin Ikromov & Abdullah Yavas, 2012. "Cash Flow Volatility, Prices and Price Volatility: An Experimental Study," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 203-229, January.
  14. Brian Lucey & Fergal A. O'connor, 2012. "Do Bubbles occur in Gold Prices? Evidence from Gold Lease Rates and Markov Switching Models," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp418, IIIS.

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