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Measuring Bubble Expectations and Investor Confidence

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Robert J. Shiller

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Abstract

This paper presents evidence on attitude changes among investors in the US stock market. Two basic attitudes are explored: bubble expectations and investor confidence. Semiannual time-series indicators of these attitudes are presented for US stock market institutional investors based on questionnaire survey results 1989 1998, from surveys that I have derived in collaboration with Fumiko Kon-Ya and Yoshiro Tsutsui. Five different time-series indicators of whether there is among investors an expectation of a speculative bubble, an unstable situation with expectations for increase in the short run only, are produced. Four different time-series indicators of whether there is an expectation of a negative speculative bubble are presented. Four different time-series indicators of investor confidence, that nothing can go wrong, are produced. Time-series variation for these indicators is significant, and cross correlations are generally positive. A bubble expectations index, a negative-bubble expectations index, and an investor confidence index are derived from these indicators. Behavior of the indicators and indexes through time is examined, and the indexes are compared with other economic variables. A notable finding is a degree of high-frequency fluctuation, semester to semester, in the indexes.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7008.

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Date of creation: Mar 1999
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7008

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F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies

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  1. Chen, Nai-fu & Kan, Raymond & Miller, Merton H, 1993. " Are the Discounts on Closed-End Funds a Sentiment Index?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 795-800, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Lee, Charles M C & Shleifer, Andrei & Thaler, Richard H, 1991. " Investor Sentiment and the Closed-End Fund Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 75-109, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R., 1996. "Market timing ability and volatility implied in investment newsletters' asset allocation recommendations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 397-421, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2005. "Econometric tests of asset price bubbles: taking stock," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-04, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  2. Stephen J. Brown & William N. Goetzmann & Takato Hiraki & Noriyoshi Shirishi & Masahiro Watanabe, 2003. "Investor Sentiment in Japanese and U.S. Daily Mutual Fund Flows," NBER Working Papers 9470, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Schmitz, Philipp & Glaser, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2006. "Individual Investor Sentiment and Stock Returns - What Do We Learn from Warrant Traders?," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 06-12, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
  4. Robert J. Shiller, 2002. "From Efficient Market Theory to Behavioral Finance," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1385, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Glaser, Markus & Langer, Thomas & Reynders, Jens & Weber, Martin, 2005. "Framing Effects in Stock Market Forecasts: The Difference Between Asking for Prices and Asking for Returns," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 05-40, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  6. Sonnemans, J. & Hommes, C.H. & Tuinstra, J. & van de Velden, H., 1999. "The Instability of a Heterogeneous Cobweb economy: a Strategy Experiment on Expectation Formation," CeNDEF Working Papers 99-06, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Gene Amromin & Steven A. Sharpe, 2005. "From the horse's mouth: gauging conditional expected stock returns from investor surveys," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-26, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  8. Arnswald, Torsten, 2001. "Investment Behaviour of German Equity Fund Managers," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,08, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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