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Stock returns and expected business conditions: half a century of direct evidence

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Author Info
Frank Diebold
Sean Campbell

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Abstract

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Article provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its journal Proceedings.

Volume (Year): (2005)
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgpr:y:2005:x:30

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Related research
Keywords: Business cycles ; Stock - Prices;

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," CRSP working papers 412, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Constantinides, George M & Duffie, Darrell, 1996. "Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Consumers," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 219-40, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Schwert, G William, 1989. " Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change over Time?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1115-53, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Miller, Edward M, 1977. "Risk, Uncertainty, and Divergence of Opinion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1151-68, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Jin (Ginger) Wu, 2005. "A Framework for Exploring the Macroeconomic Determinants of Systematic Risk," CFS Working Paper Series 2005/04, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1989. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," NBER Working Papers 2100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. John H. Cochrane & Monika Piazzesi, 2002. "Bond Risk Premia," NBER Working Papers 9178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 1997. "Optimal Prediction Under Asymmetric Loss," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(06), pages 808-817, December. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Leitch, Gordon & Tanner, J Ernest, 1991. "Economic Forecast Evaluation: Profits versus the Conventional Error Measures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(3), pages 580-90, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Fama, Eugene F, 1990. " Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1089-1108, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. James D. Hamilton & Gang Lin, 1996. "Stock Market Volatility and The Business Cycle," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 96-18, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Hui Guo & Robert Savickas, 2005. "Idiosyncratic volatility, stock market volatility, and expected stock returns," Working Papers 2003-028, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. repec:cup:etheor:v:13:y:1997:i:6:p:808-17 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Sydney Ludvigson & Martin Lettau, 1999. "Consumption, aggregate wealth and expected stock returns," Staff Reports 77, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Hodrick, Robert J, 1992. "Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Inference and Measurement," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 357-86. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Martin Lettau, 2001. "Consumption, Aggregate Wealth, and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 815-849, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Campbell, John Y, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 157-79, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Gultekin, N Bulent, 1983. " Stock Market Returns and Inflation Forecasts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(3), pages 663-73, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Dean Croushore, 1997. "The Livingston Survey: still useful after all these years," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Mar, pages 15-27. [Downloadable!]
  25. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "The Stock Market and Investment," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 115-31. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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