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The Predictability of Stock Market Regime: Evidence from the Toronto Stock Exchange

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  • van Norden, Simon
  • Schaller, Huntley

Abstract

Are stock market crashes and rallies related to deviations from the apparent fundamental share price? Using a switching-regression framework, the authors test whether apparent deviations help to predict the regime from which the next period's stock market return is drawn and the magnitude of returns in that regime. They find that the probability of a collapse rises before most actual crashes. Likelihood ratio tests confirm that regime switches are influenced by apparent deviations. Copyright 1993 by MIT Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Review of Economics & Statistics.

Volume (Year): 75 (1993)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Pages: 505-10

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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:75:y:1993:i:3:p:505-10

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Web page: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journals/

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Web: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journal-home.tcl?issn=00346535

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Cited by:
  1. Wilfredo L. Maldonado & Octávio A. F. Tourinho & Jorge A. B. M. de Abreu, 2014. "Cointegrated Periodically Collapsing Bubbles in the Exchange Rate of 'BRICS' Countries," CAMA Working Papers 2014-34, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  2. Van Norden, S. & Schaller, H., 1996. "Speculative Behaviour, Regime-Switching and Stock Market Crashes," Working Papers 96-13, Bank of Canada.
  3. Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin & Spagnolo, Fabio, 2001. "A simple procedure for detecting periodically collapsing rational bubbles," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 317-323, September.
  4. Uribe Gil, Jorge Mario, 2013. "Testing for multiple bubbles with daily data," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO-CIDSE 011028, UNIVERSIDAD DEL VALLE - CIDSE.
  5. Vigfusson, R. & Van Norden, S., 1996. "Avoiding the Pitfalls: Can Regime-Switching Tests Detect Bubbles?," Working Papers 96-11, Bank of Canada.
  6. Anderson, Keith & Brooks, Chris & Katsaris, Apostolos, 2010. "Speculative bubbles in the S&P 500: Was the tech bubble confined to the tech sector?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 345-361, June.
  7. Simon van Norden & Huntley Schaller, 2002. "Fads or bubbles?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 335-362.
  8. Keith Anderson & Chris Brooks & Sotiris Tsolacos, 2009. "Testing for periodically collapsing rational speculative bubbles in US REITs," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2009-11, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  9. Xiaoliang Liu & Guenther Filler & Martin Odening, 2013. "Testing for speculative bubbles in agricultural commodity prices: a regime switching approach," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 73(1), pages 179-200, April.
  10. Huntley Schaller & Simon Van Norden, 1997. "Regime switching in stock market returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 177-191.
  11. Kanas, Angelos, 2005. "Nonlinearity in the stock price-dividend relation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 583-606, June.
  12. Maximilian Brauers & Matthias Thomas & Joachim Zietz, 2014. "Are There Rational Bubbles in REITs? New Evidence from a Complex Systems Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 165-184, August.
  13. Nathan S. Balke & Mark E. Wohar, 2009. "Market fundamentals versus rational bubbles in stock prices: a Bayesian perspective," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 35-75.
  14. Ahmed, Ehsan & Barkley Rosser, J. Jr. & Uppal, Jamshed Y., 1999. "Evidence of nonlinear speculative bubbles in pacific-rim stock markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 21-36.
  15. Warren Dean & Robert Faff, 2008. "Evidence of feedback trading with Markov switching regimes," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 133-151, February.
  16. Catherine Araujo Bonjean & Catherine Simonet, 2012. "Are grain markets in Niger driven by speculation?," Working Papers halshs-00626409, HAL.
  17. David G. McMillan, 2010. "Present Value Model, Bubbles and Returns Predictability: Sector-Level Evidence," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(5-6), pages 668-686.
  18. Maldonado, Wilfredo L. & Tourinho, Octávio A.F. & Valli, Marcos, 2012. "Exchange rate bubbles: Fundamental value estimation and rational expectations test," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1033-1059.

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