Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

House Prices and Business Cycles in Europe: a VAR Analysis

Contents:

Author Info

  • Matteo Iacoviello

    () (Boston College)

Abstract

A structural vector autoregressive approach identifies the main macroeconomic factors behind fluctuations in house prices in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden and the UK. Quarterly GDP, house prices, money, inflation and interest rates are characterised by a multivariate process driven by supply, nominal, monetary, inflationary and demand shocks. Tight money leads to a fall in real house prices; house price responses are hump-shaped; the responses of house prices and, to a lesser extent, GDP to a monetary shock can be partly justified by the different housing and financial market institutions across countries; transitory shocks drive a significant part of short-run house price fluctuations.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://fmwww.bc.edu/EC-P/wp540.pdf
File Function: main text
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Boston College Department of Economics in its series Boston College Working Papers in Economics with number 540.

as in new window
Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: 03 Oct 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:540

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Boston College, 140 Commonwealth Avenue, Chestnut Hill MA 02467 USA
Phone: 617-552-3670
Fax: +1-617-552-2308
Email:
Web page: http://fmwww.bc.edu/EC/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: house prices; structural VAR; monetary policy;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Fisher, L. & Fackler, P. & Orden, D., 1992. "Long-Run Identifying Restrictions for an Error-Correction Model of New Zealand Money, Prices and Output," Papers 92-27, New South Wales - School of Economics.
  2. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  3. Michael M. Hutchison, 1993. "Asset price fluctuations in Japan: what role for monetary policy?," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 93-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  4. Poterba, James M, 1984. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 99(4), pages 729-52, November.
  5. Jacobson, T. & Vredin, A. & Warne, A., 1993. "Are Real Wages and Unemployment Related?," Papers 558, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  6. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy and Asset Price Volatility," NBER Working Papers 7559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. John H. Cochrane, 1995. "What do the VARs Mean?: Measuring the Output Effects of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Levin, Eric J. & Wright, Robert E., 1997. "The impact of speculation on house prices in the United Kingdom," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 567-585, October.
  9. Matteo Iacoviello & Raoul Minetti, 2003. "Financial Liberalization And The Sensitivity Of House Prices To Monetary Policy: Theory And Evidence," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(1), pages 20-34, January.
  10. Gunter Coenen & Juan Luis Vega, 2000. "The Demand for M3 in the Euro Area," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0976, Econometric Society.
  11. Fernando Barran & Virginie Coudert & Benoît Mojon, 1996. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy in the European Countries," Working Papers 1996-03, CEPII research center.
  12. Warne, A., 1993. "A Common Trends Model: Identification, Estimation and Inference," Papers 555, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  13. Gali, Jordi, 1992. "How Well Does the IS-LM Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 709-38, May.
  14. Mellander, Erik & Vredin, A & Warne, A, 1992. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(4), pages 369-94, Oct.-Dec..
  15. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  16. Holmans, A. E., 1994. "House prices, land prices, the housing market and house purchase debt in the UK and other countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 157-199, April.
  17. Maclennan, Duncan & Muellbauer, John & Stephens, Mark, 1998. "Asymmetries in Housing and Financial Market Institutions and EMU," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 54-80, Autumn.
  18. Stefan Gerlach & Frank Smets, 1995. "The monetary transmission mechanism: Evidence from the G-7 countries," BIS Working Papers 26, Bank for International Settlements.
  19. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  20. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  21. Palle S. Andersen & Neale Kennedy, 1994. "Household saving and real house prices: an international perspective," BIS Working Papers 20, Bank for International Settlements.
  22. Lastrapes, W. D., 1998. "International evidence on equity prices, interest rates and money," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 377-406, June.
  23. Neil R. Ericsson, 1998. "Empirical modeling of money demand," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 295-315.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Rangan Gupta & Marius Jurgilas & Alain Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller, 2011. "Monetary policy and housing sector dynamics in a large-scale Bayesian vector autoregressive model," International Journal of Strategic Property Management, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 1-20, August.
  2. Christophe Blot, 2006. "Peut-on parler de bulle sur le marché immobilier au Luxembourg ?," BCL working papers 20, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
  3. Calza, Alessandro & Monacelli, Tommaso & Stracca, Livio, 2007. "Mortgage Markets, Collateral Constraints, and Monetary Policy: Do Institutional Factors Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6231, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2008. "Ensuring Financial Stability: Financial Structure and the Impact of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 6773, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Kai Carstensen & Oliver Hülsewig & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2009. "Monetary Policy Transmission and House Prices: European Cross Country Evidence," Working Paper / FINESS 7.4, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  6. Horst Gischer & Mirko Weiß, 2007. "Entwicklung der Immobilienpreise im Euroraum: Bestandsaufnahme und makroökonomische Konsequenzen," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(19), pages 27-42, October.
  7. Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche & Stefan Gerlach, 2008. "Financial Structure and the Impact of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices," CFS Working Paper Series 2008/30, Center for Financial Studies.
  8. Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Rangan Gupta & Goodness C. Aye, 2013. "Macro Shocks And House Prices In South Africa," Working Papers 201302, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  9. Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2004. "Macroeconomics and Housing: A Review of the Literature," Discussion Papers 00004, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics.
  10. Elbourne, Adam, 2008. "The UK housing market and the monetary policy transmission mechanism: An SVAR approach," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 65-87, March.
  11. Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi, 2009. "The Effect Of Monetary Policy On House Price Inflation: A Factor Augmented Vector Autoregression (Favar) Approach," Working Papers 200903, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  12. Gupta, Rangan & Jurgilas, Marius & Kabundi, Alain, 2010. "The effect of monetary policy on real house price growth in South Africa: A factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 315-323, January.
  13. Jurgen von Hageny & Haiping Zhang, 2007. "A Welfare Analysis of Capital Liberalization," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22489, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:540

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F Baum).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.