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House Prices and Business Cycles in Europe: a VAR Analysis

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Author Info
Matteo Iacoviello () (Boston College)

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Abstract

A structural vector autoregressive approach identifies the main macroeconomic factors behind fluctuations in house prices in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden and the UK. Quarterly GDP, house prices, money, inflation and interest rates are characterised by a multivariate process driven by supply, nominal, monetary, inflationary and demand shocks. Tight money leads to a fall in real house prices; house price responses are hump-shaped; the responses of house prices and, to a lesser extent, GDP to a monetary shock can be partly justified by the different housing and financial market institutions across countries; transitory shocks drive a significant part of short-run house price fluctuations.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Boston College Department of Economics in its series Boston College Working Papers in Economics with number 540.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: 03 Oct 2002
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Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:540

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Related research
Keywords: house prices; structural VAR; monetary policy;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
R21 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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References listed on IDEAS
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Calza, Alessandro & Monacelli, Tommaso & Stracca, Livio, 2007. "Mortgage Markets, Collateral Constraints, and Monetary Policy: Do Institutional Factors Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6231, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2008. "Ensuring Financial Stability: Financial Structure and the Impact of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 6773, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Kai Carstensen & Oliver Hülsewig & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2009. "Monetary Policy Transmission and House Prices: European Cross-country Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche & Stefan Gerlach, 2008. "Financial Structure and the Impact of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices," CFS Working Paper Series 2008/30, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Rangan Gupta & Marius Jurgilas & Alain Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. "Monetary Policy and Housing Sector Dynamics in a Large-Scale Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Model," Working papers 2009-19, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi, 2009. "The Effect Of Monetary Policy On House Price Inflation: A Factor Augmented Vector Autoregression (Favar) Approach," Working Papers 200903, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  7. Haiping Zhang & Jurgen von Hagen, 2007. "A Welfare Analysis of Capital Account Liberalization," Working Papers 19-2007, Singapore Management University, School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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