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Testing for the Cointegration Rank when Some Cointegrating Directions are Shifting

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Author Info
Philippe Andrade (THEMA)
Catherine Bruneau (THEMA)
Stephane Gregoir (INSEE - CREST)

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Abstract

In this paper we propose a multivariate analysis of a cointegrated vectorial autoregressive model with structural breaks affecting the cointegrating vectors. These changes are previously recognized using a single-equation methodology. Asymptotic properties of the breaks dates estimators allow us to implement a full information maximum likelihood analysis with the breaks identified considered as fixed. Thus, a VECM is estimated, providing a relevant framework to test for non-causality and neutrality tests, as well as impulse response analysis of the dynamics. The methodology is applied to the trivariate system analysed by Gregory and Hansen (1996), with a money variable, an interest rate and the output for the US over the 1960-1990 period.

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Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers with number 1605.

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Date of creation: 01 Aug 2000
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:wc2000:1605

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  1. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
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  2. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Campbell, John Y. & Shiller, Robert J., 1988. "Interpreting cointegrated models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 505-522. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Warne, A., 1993. "A Common Trends Model: Identification, Estimation and Inference," Papers 555, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  5. Mellander, Erik & Vredin, A & Warne, A, 1992. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(4), pages 369-94, Oct.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
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  8. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Hiro Y. Toda & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1991. "Vector Autoregression and Causality," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 977, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Peter Reinhard Hansen, 2000. "Structural Breaks in the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1240, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  11. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 389-402, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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