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Structural Breaks in the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model

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Author Info
Peter Reinhard Hansen (Brown University)

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Abstract

We generalize the cointegrated vector autoregressive model of Johansen (1988, 1991) to allow for structural breaks. We derive the likelihood ratio test for structural breaks occurring at fixed points in time, and show that it is asymptotically chi-squared. Moreover, we show how inference can be made when the null hypothesis is presence of structural breaks.
The estimation technique derived for this purpose can be applied to several other generalizations of the standard model, beyond the structural breaks treated here. For example, the new technique can be applied to estimate models with heteroskedasticity.
We apply our generalized model to US term structure data, accounting for structural breaks that coincide with the changes in the Fed's policy in September 1979 and October 1982. Contrary to previous findings we cannot reject the long-run implications of the expectations hypothesis.

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Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers with number 1240.

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Date of creation: 01 Aug 2000
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:wc2000:1240

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Allan W. Gregory & Bruce E. Hansen, 1992. "Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," Working Papers 862, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  2. Hamilton, James D., 1988. "Rational-expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime : An investigation of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 385-423. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Chan, K C, et al, 1992. " An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1209-27, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Seo, Byeongseon, 1998. "Tests For Structural Change In Cointegrated Systems," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(02), pages 222-259, April. [Downloadable!]
  5. Shiller, Robert J. & Huston McCulloch, J., 1990. "The term structure of interest rates," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 627-722 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-88, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Inoue, Atsushi, 1999. "Tests of cointegrating rank with a trend-break," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 215-237, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
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  9. Pagan, A.R. & Hall, A.D. & Martin, V., 1995. "Modelling the Term Structure," Papers 284, Australian National University - Department of Economics.
  10. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. H. Krolzig, . "Statistical Analysis of Cointegrated VAR Processes with Markovian Regime Shifts," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 1996-25, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
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  12. Tzavalis, Elias & Wickens, Michael R, 1997. "Explaining the Failures of the Term Spread Models of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 364-80, August.
  13. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Cuthbertson, Keith, 1996. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure: The UK Interbank Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(436), pages 578-92, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Johnson, Paul A, 1994. "On the Number of Common Unit Roots in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 26(8), pages 815-20, August.
  16. den Haan, Wouter J., 1995. "The term structure of interest rates in real and monetary economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(5-7), pages 909-940. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Robert J. Shiller & J. Huston McCulloch, 1987. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 2341, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Hall, Anthony D & Anderson, Heather M & Granger, Clive W J, 1992. "A Cointegration Analysis of Treasury Bill Yields," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 116-26, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & David A. Marshall, 1996. "On Biases in Tests of the Expecations Hypothesis of the Term Structure Of Interest Rates," NBER Technical Working Papers 0191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Markku Lanne, 1999. "Near Unit Roots And The Predictive Power Of Yield Spreads For Changes In Long-Term Interest Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(3), pages 393-398, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 1996. "Testing Continuous-Time Models of the Spot Interest Rate," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 385-426. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Hjelm, Göran & Johansson, Martin W, 2002. "Structural Change in Fiscal Policy and The Permanence of Fiscal Contractions - The Case of Denmark and Ireland," Working Papers 2002:11, Lund University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Vasco J. Gabriel & Luis F. Martins, 2000. "The Properties of Cointegration Tests in Models with Structural Change," NIPE Working Papers 1/2000, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
  3. Vasco J. Gabriel & Martin Sola & Zacharias Psaradakis, 2002. "Residual-based tests for cointegration and multiple regime shifts," NIPE Working Papers 7/2002, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
  4. Vasco J. Gabriel & Martin Sola & Zacharias Psaradakis, 2001. "A simple method for testing cointegration subject to regime changes," NIPE Working Papers 15/2001, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
  5. Philippe Andrade & Catherine Bruneau & Stephane Gregoir, 2000. "Testing for the Cointegration Rank when Some Cointegrating Directions are Shifting," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1605, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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