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Structural Change in Fiscal Policy and The Permanence of Fiscal Contractions - The Case of Denmark and Ireland

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  • Hjelm, Göran

    (Department of Economics, Lund University)

  • Johansson, Martin W

    (Department of Economics, Lund University)

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    Abstract

    Instead of relying on descriptive statistics to evaluate the permanence of a fiscal contraction, this paper suggests that this issue should be studied using tests for structural breaks in cointegrating relationships between taxes and spending. We label a fiscal contraction as 'permanent' if a structural break is detected during the contraction period. Applying Gregory and Hansen's (1996) test on Danish and Irish data and find that the fiscal contraction in Ireland (1987-1989) induced a structural change in fiscal policy while the results from the Danish data do not imply such a regime shift. We discuss possible explanations for this finding

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Lund University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2002:11.

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    Length: 12 pages
    Date of creation: 21 Mar 2002
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2002_011

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    Postal: Department of Economics, School of Economics and Management, Lund University, Box 7082, S-220 07 Lund,Sweden
    Phone: +46 +46 222 0000
    Fax: +46 +46 2224613
    Web page: http://www.nek.lu.se/en
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    Related research

    Keywords: Fiscal Policy; Fiscal contraction; Cointegration; Structural breaks;

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    References

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    1. repec:wop:humbsf:2001-63 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1995. "Fiscal Expansions and Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 5214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
    4. Seo, Byeongseon, 1998. "Tests For Structural Change In Cointegrated Systems," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(02), pages 222-259, April.
    5. Allan w. Gregory & Bruce E. Hansen, 1992. "residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," Working Papers 862, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    6. repec:fth:coluec:754 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Ardagna, Silvia & Alesina, Alberto, 1998. "Tales of Fiscal Adjustment," Scholarly Articles 2579822, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    8. Helmut Lütkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen & Carsten Trenkler, 2004. "Testing for the Cointegrating Rank of a VAR Process with Level Shift at Unknown Time," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(2), pages 647-662, 03.
    9. Zaghini, A., 1999. "The Economic Policy of Fiscal Consolidations: The European Experience," Papers 355, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
    10. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 1998. "Tales of fiscal adjustment," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 13(27), pages 487-545, October.
    11. Lambertini, Luisa & Tavares, Jose, 2002. "Exchange Rates and Fiscal Adjustments: Evidence from the OECD and Implications for EMU," FEUNL Working Paper Series wp412, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Economia.
    12. U. Michael Bergman & Michael M. Hutchison, . "The 'German View', Fiscal Consolidation and Consumption Booms: Empirical Evidence from Denmark," EPRU Working Paper Series 96-10, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    13. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1989. "Credibility, Debt and Unemployment: Ireland's Failed Stabilization," NBER Working Papers 2785, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
    15. Peter Reinhard Hansen, 2000. "Structural Breaks in the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1240, Econometric Society.
    16. Bradley, John & Whelan, Karl, 1997. "The Irish expansionary fiscal contraction: A tale from one small European economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 175-201, April.
    17. Quintos, Carmela E, 1995. "Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 409-17, October.
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    Cited by:
    1. Julia Darby & V. Anton Muscatelli & Graeme Roy, 2005. "Fiscal consolidation and decentralisation: a tale of two tiers," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 169-195, June.

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